JDcom Stock Target Trimmed to $36 as Earnings Pressures Mount

JD.com's stock (NASDAQ:JD) continues to face headwinds as Bank of America slashed its price target on the Chinese e-commerce giant to $36 from $38, maintaining a Buy rating while acknowledging mounting profitability pressures.

The stock is currently trading at $29.84, down 26% on a rolling 12-month basis, though the revised target still implies roughly 20% upside from current levels.

The adjustment from BofA analyst Joyce Ju reflects a recalibration of expectations across the board. The firm now projects revenue growth of 13% for 2025, decelerating sharply to 6% in 2026 before recovering modestly to 8% in 2027. More concerning, BofA cut its non-GAAP net profit estimates, citing two specific drags on profitability: heightened consumer incentives required to maintain market share and persistent losses in the company's food delivery operations.

The food delivery business has emerged as a particular source of concern among analysts. Morgan Stanley, which holds an Underweight rating on the stock, lowered its price target from $28 to $24 in January 2026, expressing skepticism that anticipated cross-selling benefits from the food delivery investment would materialize. The lack of specific guidance on this segment during recent earnings calls has only amplified uncertainty about the scale of losses being absorbed.

Beyond delivery services, JD.com faces sector-specific challenges in core categories. HSBC reduced its target to $37 in December 2025 after identifying weakness in home appliances, a traditionally strong segment for the retailer. Retail sales in this category declined 15% and 19% in October and November respectively, prompting HSBC to project a 3% year-over-year decline in JD Retail's overall revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025. Benchmark echoed similar concerns in November, pointing to headwinds in the 3C category, covering computers, communication devices, and consumer electronics, as potential drags on near-term performance.

The pattern of downgrades has been consistent throughout 2025 and into early 2026. Citigroup trimmed its target from $44 to $37, UBS moved from $58 to $50, and Susquehanna adjusted from $45 to $40. Each revision reflects a common theme: while JD.com's operational fundamentals remain relatively sound, with some analysts noting strong performance in general merchandise and marketplace segments, the combination of competitive pressures requiring elevated promotional spending and strategic investments in lower-margin businesses is compressing profitability expectations.

Markets appear to be weighing near-term profitability concerns against JD.com's strategic positioning in China's evolving retail landscape. The consensus among most analysts maintaining Buy ratings suggests belief in the company's fundamental business model, even as they acknowledge the challenging operating environment.

The question facing shareholders is whether current valuations adequately reflect these transitional headwinds or if further multiple compression lies ahead as the company navigates intensifying competition and margin pressure in key segments.