JD.com's stock (NASDAQ:JD) saw its price jump by 4% this morning following the release of its third-quarter 2025 financial results, driven by robust revenue growth although earnings per share (EPS) experienced a decline compared to the previous year. The market responded positively to the company’s top-line performance, despite concerns regarding profitability.
The stock's pre-market move reflects a degree of investor confidence in JD.com's demonstrated ability to grow revenue, even amidst a challenging economic backdrop. However, the narrowing of EPS raises questions about the sustainability of this growth and its impact on long-term profitability.
The company reported net revenues of RMB299.1 billion for Q3 2025, a 14.9% increase year-over-year. JD Retail, a key segment, contributed significantly with revenues of RMB250.6 billion, representing an 11.4% increase from the same period last year. Despite this revenue surge, net income attributable to shareholders decreased to RMB5.3 billion from RMB11.7 billion in Q3 2024, with non-GAAP net income standing at RMB5.8 billion. The reduction in net income can be attributed to increased investments in new business ventures and elevated marketing expenses.
Operationally, JD Retail reported an operating income of RMB14.8 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 5.9%. The company actively engaged in share repurchases, buying back approximately 80.9 million Class A ordinary shares (equivalent to roughly 40.4 million ADSs) for about US$1.5 billion by September 30, 2025, under its US$5.0 billion share repurchase program. This buyback program signals a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
However, not all analysts are convinced. Prior to the earnings release, Morgan Stanley downgraded JD.com's stock to “Sell,” expressing concerns about the diminishing benefits from trade-in policies and a potential deceleration in revenue growth. These concerns highlight the challenges JD.com faces in maintaining its growth trajectory while managing costs effectively.
JD.com's expansion into the food delivery sector with JD Takeaway has intensified competition with established players like Meituan and Alibaba's Ele.me. This strategic move requires substantial investment, contributing to increased operational costs and margin pressures as the company strives to gain market share. The company noted sequential investment reduction in Q3 thanks to improved unit economics performance.
Price Targets
Bullish :
- Robust revenue growth of 14.9% year-over-year.
- Key JD Retail segment revenues increased by 11.4%.
- The company is actively repurchasing shares, signaling confidence and returning value to shareholders.
- Positive initial market reaction with a 4% stock price increase post-earnings.
Bearish :
- Net income and earnings per share (EPS) have declined compared to the previous year.
- Increased investments in new ventures and marketing are pressuring profitability.
- Morgan Stanley issued a “Sell” rating, citing concerns over slowing growth.
- Intensifying competition in key expansion areas like food delivery increases operational costs and risks.
The market's immediate positive reaction to JD.com's Q3 2025 results underscores the company's ability to generate revenue growth. However, the decline in net income and increased operational expenses cannot be ignored. The ability of JD.com to balance its growth initiatives with profitability in an increasingly competitive market will likely determine future direction, and continued monitoring is required to assess whether the current market sentiment will hold.
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