Marvell Technology’s Stock (NASDAQ: MRVL) Underperforming Into Earnings

Marvell Technology's stock (NASDAQ: MRVL) has underwhelmed this year, down 34.14% down YTD leading into today's earnings print.

While analysts predict robust growth, particularly fueled by the burgeoning AI and data center sectors, Marvell's stock price has struggled to hold breaks above $75 in recent times.

The consensus among analysts is that Marvell will deliver a strong earnings report, with EPS of $0.67, more than double the $0.30 reported in the same quarter last year. Revenue is projected to reach $2.01 billion, representing an impressive 57.91% year-over-year growth rate. This growth is largely attributed to Marvell's strategic pivot towards AI and data center solutions, areas where the company has been aggressively investing.

However, the market's reaction to Marvell's previous earnings reports suggests that investors are demanding more than just solid figures. The Q4 FY2025 earnings, released in March, saw the stock plummet nearly 20% despite exceeding analyst expectations.

The culprit? Forward guidance that, while positive, didn't meet the lofty expectations surrounding Marvell's partnership with Amazon Web Services on the Trainium AI chip. The market is seemingly pricing in perfection, and any hint of underperformance, even marginal, is met with swift punishment.

Analyst Sentiment and Key Metrics

The current analyst consensus rating for MRVL is a “Strong Buy,” based on ratings from 32 analysts. This bullish sentiment reflects confidence in Marvell's long-term growth prospects, driven by its exposure to high-growth markets like AI, 5G, and cloud computing. However, the stock's underperformance relative to its peers and the broader market raises questions about whether this optimism is fully justified.

Key metrics to watch in today's earnings release will be the performance of the data center segment, which has been a significant growth driver for Marvell.

In Q1 FY2026, the company reported record revenue of $1.895 billion, a 4% sequential increase and a 63% year-over-year growth, largely propelled by strong demand in the data center and AI segments. Investors will be keen to see if this momentum has continued into Q2.

The company themselves have provided guidance for net revenue of approximately $2.0 billion, plus or minus 5%, and a GAAP diluted net income per share of $0.21, plus or minus $0.05. This anticipated growth is largely attributed to the company's strategic emphasis on AI and data center solutions.

The upcoming earnings announcement will be a crucial test for Marvell. The company needs to not only meet expectations but also convince investors that it can sustain its growth momentum in the face of increasing competition and potential macroeconomic headwinds.