AST SpaceMobile Earnings Approach – Stock Pulls Back In Week Leading In (ASTS)

AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) heads into the latest set of earnings off the back of a 10% decline in the stock price last week. With the latest quarter set to be released after the closing bell, a pause into the print has followed a breakneck ascent in price since the start of the year, with ASTS continuing to trade 115% higher than where it began 2025.

Analysts expect AST SpaceMobile to report a significantly reduced loss for the current quarter, with an average earnings per share (EPS) estimate of -$0.08, compared to -$0.51 last year. Revenue is projected to have grown to $6.02 million from just $900,000 a year ago, marking an estimated year-over-year sales growth of nearly 569%. There is revenue momentum and improving profitability, even if from a low base.

Looking to the previous quarter for clues, the company reported a net loss of $300.1 million for the first quarter of 2025, a significant increase from the $87.6 million loss in the same period last year. A major contributor was a $268.6 million non-cash loss related to the remeasurement of warrant liabilities.

However, the company ended the quarter with a solid $874.5 million in cash, boosted by a convertible notes offering and an at-the-market (ATM) facility. The company reiterated its ambitious plan to deploy over 60 satellites during 2025 and 2026, targeting continuous coverage in key markets like the United States, Europe, and Japan.

While B. Riley adjusted its full-year earnings forecast downward to a loss of $0.49 per share, other analysts remain bullish. UBS Group increased its price target to $38.00 with a “buy” rating, and Scotiabank raised its target price to $47.90, giving the company a “sector outperform” rating. These contrasting viewpoints underscore the uncertainty and differing perspectives on ASTS's future prospects.

While the prevailing narrative focuses on AST SpaceMobile's disruptive potential and technological innovation, the company's reliance on continuous capital infusions through dilutive financing methods raises questions about its long-term viability.

While the recent government contract provides a stamp of approval, it represents a relatively small revenue stream compared to the massive capital expenditures required for satellite deployment.

Furthermore, the technical challenges associated with providing reliable, high-bandwidth cellular connectivity directly from space should not be underestimated. Atmospheric interference, signal latency, and the complexities of managing a large satellite constellation pose significant hurdles.

There will be plenty tuning into to ASTS' earnings for clues about future guidance, and with volatility inherent in the name, it would not be one for the faint of heart.