Northwestern Mutual CIO Says ‘It’s a Question of When, Not if, The Economy Broadens’

U.S. stocks climbed toward record highs last week after the Federal Reserve delivered its first interest rate cut since December, fuelling expectations of further reductions this year. 

But Northwestern Mutual chief investment officer Brent Schutte urged investors to temper their enthusiasm, noting that risks remain concentrated in the labour market and inflation is proving stubborn.

Schutte highlighted that while small-cap stocks and corporate earnings have benefited from looser monetary policy, the broader economy is still grappling with a “low firing, low hiring” backdrop. 

With companies reluctant to expand headcount and immigration constraints slowing labour force growth, he warned that “downside risks to employment are rising” and could surface quickly through higher layoffs and rising unemployment.

The CIO also flagged uncertainty around inflation, which has hovered between 2.6 and 3.1 percent since late 2023, making it difficult for the Fed to balance its dual mandate. He cautioned that expectations for two further rate cuts this year are “far from certain.”

For households, the uneven recovery remains evident. “The past two years have seen a widening bifurcation in the economy, with higher-income households thriving from asset gains while lower- and middle-income families struggled with persistent inflation, high interest rates and increasing debt,” Schutte said.

Despite this, he reiterated his conviction: “It’s a question of when, not if, the economy broadens.” 

Until then, he advised investors to stay the course. “We maintain our steady approach to investing with an unwavering belief in diversification as our guide,” Schutte wrote, stressing that diversified portfolios remain the best way to mitigate risks and capture opportunities in an uncertain landscape.