Rubrik Stock (RBRK) Delivers Year Of Two Halves as Earnings Await

Rubrik, Inc. (NYSE: RBRK) is currently trading at $71.65, up 3.5% over the past week as investors brace for the company's earnings release after market close. The stock's performance comes amid mixed signals, with upcoming earnings estimates suggesting a continued loss, while recent strategic initiatives and analyst upgrades paint a more optimistic long-term picture.

Analysts are anticipating an EPS loss of $0.17 per share and expected revenue of $320.51 million, for a 35.71% annualised growth rate.

RBRK's stock is trading below both its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $76.21 and its 200-day SMA of $78.44. This positioning suggests potential bearish momentum in the short to medium term, potentially weighing on investor sentiment heading into the earnings announcement. The past 6 months have been tough for RBRK bulls, with a 27.5% decline that followed a strong start to the year.

Through the first five months of 2025, Rubrik had actually carved out gains of 50%, bumping into resistance around $100 that failed to break.

Adding to the pre-earnings dynamic are several recent developments. A strategic collaboration agreement with Amazon Web Services (AWS) was announced on November 10. This partnership focuses on enhancing cyber resilience for AWS customers through Rubrik's Preemptive Recovery Engine. The collaboration aims to accelerate recovery time objectives, facilitate secure AI adoption through Rubrik's AI portfolio and Amazon Bedrock, and offer managed offsite protection via Rubrik Cloud Vault.

On November 18, Berenberg initiated coverage of Rubrik with a ‘Buy' recommendation. The analyst's price forecast suggests a 67.62% upside, with an average one-year price target of $117.46 per share. This bullish outlook provides a counterpoint to the prevailing bearish technical indicators.

Rubrik's acquisition of Predibase in June further underscores its commitment to AI. Predibase's platform offers a proprietary post-training stack for customizing models and includes a turbo serving engine. The integration aims to enhance Rubrik's existing partnerships with Amazon Bedrock, Azure OpenAI, and Google Agentspace.

The AWS collaboration, the Berenberg upgrade, the Predibase acquisition, and the convertible notes offering all point to a company actively positioning itself for future growth. The market will be keen to assess if these strategic moves are already bearing fruit, or if they are longer-term plays that won't be immediately reflected in the upcoming earnings report.

The key question for investors is whether Rubrik can deliver on its growth promises. The company's ability to beat revenue estimates and provide a positive outlook will be crucial in shifting market sentiment. Conversely, a miss on revenue or a cautious outlook could exacerbate the downward pressure on the stock.