Samsara Stock (IOT) Rangebound Ahead of Earnings – Is A Break On The Cards?

Samsara's stock price (NYSE: IOT) is currently set at $39.20, towards the upper portion of a range that has held firm for much of the past six months . The stock price is caught between its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $38.25 and its 200-day SMA of $39.76, with the broader range between $35 to $40 also suggesting a period of mixed momentum as investors await the company’s Q3 2026 earnings report, after market close today.

Analysts are forecasting an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.12 for the quarter, a significant 71.4% jump from the $0.07 reported during the same period last year. Revenue is expected to reach $399.01 million, reflecting a 23.92% year-over-year sales growth rate.

Recent data indicates a historical trend of Samsara's stock price increasing in the lead-up to earnings announcements. Over the past twelve quarters, the stock has risen before earnings in nine instances, with an average gain of 1.9%.

Samsara's Q2 FY2026 results, reported in August, showcased robust financial performance. Revenue reached $391.5 million, a 30% increase year-over-year. Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) also grew by 30% to $1.640 billion. The company reported a Non-GAAP operating income of $59.7 million, resulting in a margin of 15%, up from 6% in the previous year. The company's guidance for FY2026 projects revenue between $1.574 billion and $1.578 billion, representing approximately 26% year-over-year growth, with a 15% Non-GAAP operating margin.

The company has also made strides in AI governance, securing ISO 42001 certification for its AI Management Systems. This certification highlights Samsara's commitment to responsible AI practices and product safety, enhancing its credibility in the market. Samsara's 2025 Impact Report further underscores its focus on sustainability, citing the prevention of over 250,000 accidents and the reduction of over 3 billion pounds of CO₂ emissions.

Despite positive financial results and strategic initiatives, Samsara's stock has experienced volatility. Following the release of Q1 2025 results, which beat EPS and revenue estimates and included an increased full-year outlook, the stock declined in after-hours trading. This highlights the market's sensitivity to various factors beyond pure financial performance.

Significant insider selling activity has also been observed over the past six months. CEO Sanjit Biswas sold approximately $139 million worth of shares, and John Bicket sold around $131 million worth. Such large-scale insider selling can create downward pressure on the stock price and influence investor sentiment.

Institutional investment movements present a mixed picture. Artisan Partners Limited Partnership increased its stake in Samsara by 74.8% in November, while Asset Management One Co. Ltd. decreased its holdings by 21% in October 2025. This divergence in institutional sentiment reflects varying perspectives on Samsara's future potential.

Samsara has been actively pursuing strategic partnerships and initiatives to expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings. These include a Customer Advisory Board, a NASCAR sponsorship, and a partnership with Element Fleet Management. These initiatives are designed to strengthen Samsara's position in the connected operations market and foster long-term growth.