SanDisk Price Target Raised (SNDK) on Exceptional NAND Market Dynamics

SanDisk's stock (NASDAQ:SNDK) trades at $475 ahead of the opening bell, approaching Morgan Stanley's newly elevated price target of $483, as the investment bank substantially increased its earnings expectations for the memory chip manufacturer amid what analysts describe as exceptional NAND market fundamentals.

The latest price target represents a dramatic 77% increase from the firm's previous $273 target, underscoring intensifying confidence in the company's near-term earnings power.

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore maintained an Overweight rating on the stock while significantly raising revenue and earnings projections for the March quarter. The firm now models revenue of $2.94 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $5.71, reflecting a notable shift in NAND pricing assumptions. Moore adjusted his NAND average selling price forecast from a 10% quarter-over-quarter increase to 20%, while moderating the expected decline in bit shipments from down 8% sequentially to down 6%.

The surge in enterprise solid-state drives has emerged as the primary catalyst driving exceptional NAND fundamentals, according to Morgan Stanley's analysis. This enterprise demand has created meaningful tightness across consumer markets as well, supporting broader pricing strength throughout the NAND ecosystem. The firm noted that despite considerably raising its estimates, the projections remain aligned with management guidance for the December quarter, suggesting conservative official forecasts may leave room for upside surprises.

Moore's analysis indicates that Morgan Stanley's through-cycle earnings estimate of $13 per share is probably too low, with the analyst expecting numbers to move higher as the favorable supply-demand dynamics persist. This assessment marks a continuation of increasingly bullish sentiment from Wall Street analysts who have collectively raised price targets multiple times throughout the fourth quarter of 2025 and into early 2026.

The current price target of $483 represents the culmination of a remarkable series of upward revisions from Morgan Stanley alone. The firm initiated this trajectory in early November with a target of $230, subsequently raising it to $263, then $273, before reaching the current level. This progression reflects the rapidly evolving understanding of NAND market conditions and SanDisk's positioning within an increasingly constrained supply environment.

Other major financial institutions have similarly elevated their outlook on SanDisk. BofA Securities established a $230 price target in November, citing stronger-than-expected datacenter demand and anticipated medium-term undersupply of hard disk drives driving higher demand for enterprise SSD products. Jefferies raised its target to $180, highlighting the rapid proliferation of multimodal large language models as a demand driver, while Benchmark set a $125 target based on industry-wide NAND price increases.

Price Targets

The memory market has experienced intensifying shortages across multiple product categories, with particular tightness in DDR5 DRAM and what analysts characterize as generational tightness across all memory segments. This supply constraint, combined with robust AI-driven demand from datacenter customers, has created conditions for multiple quarters of upward estimate revisions according to Morgan Stanley's framework.

The company's strategic focus on qualifying multiple Tier 1 customers for its UltraQLC platform in the first half of 2026, combined with upcoming enterprise SSD products built on the BiCS8 process, positions SanDisk to capitalize on sustained pricing strength and market share gains in high-growth segments.

Overall, the sentiment surrounding SanDisk is overwhelmingly bullish, driven by powerful tailwinds in the NAND memory market. Strong demand from enterprise and AI sectors, coupled with supply constraints, has led to a series of aggressive price target upgrades from major analysts.