U.S. Bancorp (USB) Earnings Approach – What To Expect

U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) is set to announce its third-quarter 2025 earnings before the market opens tomorrow (Thursday 16th), a release eagerly anticipated by analysts seeking clarity amidst a backdrop of economic uncertainty. The stock is currently down 5.27% in the month leading into the print, with some hesitancy ahead of earnings.

Analysts are projecting earnings per share (EPS) of $1.12 and revenue of approximately $7.18 billion for the quarter. These expectations come on the heels of a strong second quarter, where U.S. Bancorp reported a net income of $1.815 billion, a 13.2% increase year-over-year. The diluted EPS for Q2 2025 was $1.11, up from $0.97 in the same period of 2024. The bank also achieved a return on tangible common equity of 18.0% and a return on average assets of 1.08%.

The financial institution will release its Q3 report amid a temporary government shutdown, which has led to delays in key economic data releases. In the absence of this traditional economic data, analysts are turning to corporate earnings reports, especially those of major financial institutions like U.S. Bancorp, to glean insights into the overall health of the economy.

In the previous quarter, U.S. Bancorp exceeded analysts' expectations, reporting an EPS of $1.11 compared to the anticipated $1.07. This history of exceeding expectations will likely place additional pressure on the bank to deliver a similarly strong performance this quarter.

Management has guided for net interest income (NII) to be between $4.1 billion and $4.2 billion for the third quarter, fueled by stable funding costs and robust loan demand. Non-interest income is also expected to see a sequential increase of 1.9%, reaching approximately $3 billion. These projections suggest a positive outlook for the bank's core revenue streams.

The broader banking sector is anticipated to experience stronger earnings in the third quarter, driven by a resurgence in investment banking activities. Major U.S. banks are expected to benefit from increased mergers, acquisitions, and IPO activity, as well as higher trading revenues. This positive trend in the banking sector could provide a tailwind for U.S. Bancorp's earnings.

Analysts have set an average price target of $52.53 for U.S. Bancorp, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 13.80% from the current price. This price target reflects analysts' confidence in the bank's future performance and growth potential.

The upcoming earnings report will be a critical test of U.S. Bancorp's ability to navigate the complex economic environment and deliver value to its shareholders. The markets will be closely scrutinizing the bank's financial performance, management's guidance, and the overall outlook for the banking sector. The results will provide valuable insights into the health of the U.S. economy and the resilience of the financial system. The market's reaction to the earnings release will likely set the tone for U.S. Bancorp's stock performance in the coming months.