Vistra Earnings On Deck, Stock (NYSE:VST) Holding $200 Leading In

Vistra Corp's stock (NYSE: VST) pulled back 4.17% yesterday leading into earnings, yet managed to hold onto the $200 as support, with a close at $200.85. With the print due out before this morning's market open, markets are keenly watching to see if the energy giant can overcome the challenges highlighted in its first-quarter performance.

Analysts expect Vistra Corp. (VST) to report Q2 2025 earnings per share of $0.90, matching the same period last year. Revenue is projected to rise significantly to $4.74 billion from $3.85 billion, reflecting a strong 23.39% year-over-year growth, driven by increased demand and operational expansion.

Looking back at the previous report, a significant rise in operational expenses pushed EPS firmly negative, with a $0.93 loss coming against expectations for a $0.61 profit per share. Fuel, purchased power costs, and delivery fees jumped by 42.4% to $2.45 billion, while operating costs rose by 39.2% to $693 million.

These escalating costs led to an operating loss of $120 million, a considerable swing from the $86 million operating income in the prior year. Markets will be looking for signs that Vistra has taken steps to control these costs in the intervening months.

Despite the disappointing Q1 results, Vistra reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA between $5.5 billion and $6.1 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth between $3.0 billion and $3.6 billion.

This reaffirmation suggests management remains confident in the company's underlying business and its ability to achieve its financial targets. The key question is whether this confidence is justified.

A significant factor supporting Vistra's outlook is its hedging strategy. The company has hedged approximately 100% of its expected generation volumes for 2025 and approximately 80% for 2026.

This strategy provides a degree of insulation against potential energy price volatility, offering some predictability to future earnings. The markets will want to know if these hedges are performing as expected and if the company plans any adjustments given the current market conditions.

Analysts have been actively tweaking their EPS outlooks ahead of earnings, with 6 cutting them in the month leading in. Whilst EPS was expected at $1.51 just 1 month ago, the consensus now is that $0.9 will be the look.

The upcoming earnings report will provide crucial insights into Vistra's current performance and future prospects, but it is only one piece of the puzzle. VST remains firmly higher this year, with the stock having added 34.2% YTD, and 171% over the past 12 months. The trend has been strong, but can execution match sentiment.