Volatility in ABAT Stock Persists as Technical Report Released

American Battery Technology Company (NASDAQ: ABTC) is experiencing significant stock volatility following the release of its S-K 1300 Technical Report and Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for the Tonopah Flats Lithium Project (TFLP). The stock has fallen approximately 32% today, adding to yesterday's 21% decline, despite trading 142% higher on a one-month basis.

The recent pullback comes despite the PFS confirming the project's robust economic potential and strategic importance as a cornerstone of the domestic critical mineral lithium supply chain. The TFLP is projected to produce 30,000 tonnes per year of lithium hydroxide monohydrate (LHM) over a 45-year mine life, utilizing only the southern portion of the property.

Financially, the project boasts an after-tax Net Present Value (NPV) at an 8% discount rate of $2.57 billion and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 21.8%, with a 7.5-year payback period from the initial investment. Production costs are estimated at $4,307 per tonne of LHM, a 9.2% reduction from the April 2024 Initial Assessment. The grade entering the refinery has increased to approximately 2,100 ppm Li from approximately 800 ppm Li through beneficiation techniques. An integrated behind-the-meter onsite power generation system with battery energy storage supplements grid electricity, optimizing facility energy management and lowering effective electricity costs.

The project has seen a 53% increase in Measured and Indicated Resources, with an 11% increase in total lithium resources compared to the April 2024 Initial Assessment. The company has established 2.73 million tonnes of LHM in proven and probable reserves. ABTC has completed and submitted all required NEPA Baseline Reports for permitting the TFLP, as well as a comprehensive Mine Plan of Operations, currently under review by the BLM. In April 2025, ABTC received initial approval for low-cost debt financing of $900 million through a Letter of Interest from the US Export-Import Bank to support the TFLP facility buildout.

ABTC has achieved significant milestones, including the completion of all required National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) baseline studies for the TFLP. These studies involved collaboration with over 40 regulatory agencies and stakeholders to ensure comprehensive environmental analyses. In June 2025, the TFLP was selected by the FAST-41 Permitting Council and the National Energy Dominance Council as a Transparency Priority Project, in line with President Trump's Executive Order on increasing American mineral production, aiming to expedite approvals for priority mineral projects.

In January 2025, ABTC commenced a new drill program to accelerate the commercialization of the TFLP, gathering geotechnical data for the PFS, refining the mine design, and enhancing resource modeling. The favorable economic metrics from the PFS, completion of critical environmental studies, and expedited permitting processes enhance the project's attractiveness.

Analyst Summary: Bull and Bear Cases

However, markets are seemingly factoring in potential challenges, including reliance on a Pre-Feasibility Study, which is less comprehensive than a full feasibility study, and uncertainties related to obtaining necessary permits and approvals. Despite the recent price correction, the underlying fundamentals of the Tonopah Flats Lithium Project remain strong, positioning ABTC as a key player in the domestic lithium market. The stock's volatile reaction suggests markets are weighing both the significant progress and the inherent risks associated with bringing a major mining project to fruition.