Pfizer Stock (PFE) Shows Golden Cross After YTD Decline: Momentum Shift Imminent?

Pfizer's stock (NYSE:PFE) has recently formed a “golden cross” on its chart, a potentially bullish signal. Despite the cross, the stock remains down almost 7% year-to-date (YTD), putting holders in somewhat of a mixed position. The emergence of this technical pattern suggests a possible shift in momentum, but challenges remain.

In mid-August, Pfizer's stock price exhibited a golden cross, a technical pattern where the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average. This occurrence often indicates the potential for a sustained upward trend, as it suggests that the stock's recent performance is outperforming its longer-term trend. Markets often interpret this as a bullish signal.

However, the positive signal is juxtaposed against the backdrop of declining COVID-19 product sales. As the pandemic has waned, demand for Pfizer's Comirnaty vaccine and Paxlovid treatment has significantly decreased. Sales plummeted from $56.7 billion in 2022 to approximately $11 billion in 2024. While sales have stabilized in 2025, their dependence on fluctuating infection rates introduces a level of uncertainty that may have dampened markets' enthusiasm.

Further complicating the outlook are impending patent expirations for several key Pfizer products. Between 2026 and 2030, patents for drugs such as Eliquis, Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xeljanz, and Xtandi are set to expire. The anticipated loss of exclusivity poses a substantial risk to future revenue streams, potentially contributing to a more cautious market outlook.

Counterbalancing these challenges is Pfizer's strategic acquisition of Seagen in December 2023 for $43 billion. Seagen, a leader in antibody-drug conjugates for cancer treatment, is projected to contribute over $10 billion in risk-adjusted revenues by 2030, with the potential for significant growth beyond. This acquisition strengthens Pfizer's oncology portfolio, offering a bullish counterweight to concerns about patent expirations.

In early October, Pfizer's stock experienced a surge, climbing 6.79% over a four-day rally. This movement was fueled by bullish technical indicators, including the aforementioned golden cross. Key support and resistance levels, coupled with strong volume spikes and bullish candlestick patterns, pointed to sustained momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated that the stock was overbought, suggesting the potential for a near-term correction.

Pfizer's stock performance has lagged behind the broader pharmaceutical sector. The iShares U.S. Pharmaceuticals ETF (IHE) has outperformed Pfizer, with a 1.1% decline YTD and a 1.3% decrease over the past 52 weeks. In contrast, IHE reported gains of 10.9% YTD and 5.9% over the last year. This relative underperformance can be attributed to the decline in COVID-19 product sales and the looming patent cliffs for top-selling drugs like Eliquis.

While the golden cross formation and the Seagen acquisition suggest the possibility of a positive shift in momentum, the challenges posed by declining COVID-19 product sales and patent expirations cannot be ignored.