Hugo Boss Shares: Analyst Remains Cautious as 2026 Reset Year Weighs on Outlook

mwb Research reiterated its Hold rating and €36.50 price target on Hugo Boss (ETR: BOSS) shares in a note on Tuesday following a better-than-expected first quarter, saying the luxury fashion group’s ongoing strategic overhaul and a challenging macro environment leave little room for upside near-term.

Analyst Alexander Zienkowicz noted that the quarter delivered a modest beat, with group revenues of €905 million coming in ahead of consensus expectations of €887 million. 

The gross margin improved 110 basis points to 62.5%, driven by sourcing efficiencies and disciplined pricing. 

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However, EBIT fell 42% year-on-year to €35 million, with the margin compressing from 6.1% to 3.9%, reflecting what mwb Research described as “reset-year dynamics” under the company’s CLAIM 5 TOUCHDOWN strategic framework.

On a currency-adjusted basis, sales declined 6% year-on-year, with EMEA and the Americas down 8% and 5% respectively, while Asia/Pacific returned to modest growth of 1%. The HUGO brand remained under significant pressure, falling 21% on a constant currency basis amid a strategic overhaul of its product range.

Free cash flow was highlighted as a genuine bright spot, swinging to €33 million from negative €66 million a year earlier, supported by a 13% reduction in inventories.

Management confirmed full-year 2026 guidance, targeting a mid- to high-single digit currency-adjusted revenue decline and EBIT of €300-350 million. 

However, Zienkowicz cautioned that “the ongoing Middle East conflict adds meaningful uncertainty to the lower end of the EBIT range.”

With the macro environment still challenging, mwb Research left its estimates unchanged.