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UK Retail Sales Volumes Fall 0.4% in September as Warm Weather Bites

UK retail sales volumes fell 0.4% in September, the Office for National Statistics said at 7am today, as warm weather hit clothing and supermarket sales, though the three months to September remain higher.

UK retail sales volumes fell 0.4% in September, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the official statistics body. The first estimate, published at 7am today, follows an August that was revised up to a 0.7% rise from 0.5%. The calendar-provider estimate, provenance unstated, was -0.1%, so the fall was larger than that figure implied. The ONS data cover Great Britain and are seasonally adjusted.

What was announced

The ONS bulletin said: “Retail sales volumes are estimated to have fallen by 0.4% in September 2026.” Volume means the quantity of goods bought, with price effects removed. July was also revised, to -0.4% from -0.5%.

September volumes were 0.8% above September 2025. The wider quarter is firmer: volumes in July to September rose 0.7% on April to June and 1.5% on the same quarter of 2025.

Measure, month on monthSeptemberAugust
Total volumes-0.4%+0.7%
Non-food stores volumes-0.4%No data
Online spending values-0.4%+3.0%

Online figures are values, meaning pounds spent rather than goods bought. They were still 6.8% higher than a year earlier, and online accounted for 28.8% of sales against 28.9% in August.

Market reaction

This article makes no claim about how sterling, the FTSE 100, gilts or retailers responded to the figure. The live sterling chart below is for context.

GBPUSD.FOREX

Why the figure was weak

The ONS pointed to the weather. It said: “Online clothing retailers commented that the release of autumn and winter ranges in September 2026 did not perform well because of the unseasonably warm weather.” The ONS cited the Met Office, the national weather service, as ranking September joint-fourth warmest on record.

Mail order and online clothing sales fell, and supermarket sales dropped after rises in July and August. Non-food stores fell 0.4%, with clothing and footwear, sports equipment and household goods stores weaker; the ONS linked this to lower footfall and customers cutting back. Fuel was the exception: volumes rose despite higher fuel prices, after a fall in August.

What comes next

The next ONS retail sales release is due on the 20th of November. Bank Rate, the Bank of England’s policy rate, stood at 3.75% on 21 October.

One month does not settle the picture. The ONS itself says: “Monthly growth rates can be volatile. Monthly growth should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate.” On that measure, retail volumes are still rising.

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