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Moderna Swings to Profit, Lifts Guidance

Moderna swung to a third-quarter profit on strong international COVID vaccine sales and lifted its 2026 revenue growth forecast, though its new flu and cancer products are not yet driving the gain.

Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA), the mRNA vaccine maker, reported third-quarter revenue of $1.31bn today, well above the $885.1m expected in an LSEG analyst survey, and raised its 2026 growth outlook. Net income was $162m, against a $200m loss a year earlier.

Shares closed yesterday at $241.46, down 6.55% on the session and below Wednesday’s $258.38. Even so, that is about 283% above the $62.96 close on the 18th of August. The results came before the US open today.

MRNA.US

Revenue rose 29% from $1,016m a year earlier, with $780m from the US and $533m from international markets. Earnings per share were $0.38, against the loss of $1.25 the survey expected. The FT described it as Moderna’s first quarterly profit in two years.

Moderna credits higher international COVID vaccine sales, supported by deliveries under long-term government partnerships. Chief Executive Officer Stéphane Bancel said:

Building on this momentum, we increased our full-year revenue growth outlook to 15%-25%, while continuing to reduce costs and strengthen our balance sheet.

Stéphane Bancel, Moderna

Guidance is the company’s own forecast for the year. The cash forecast rose in large part because of $2.6bn in net proceeds from convertible notes, bonds that can turn into shares.

2026 guidance Previous New
Revenue growth Up to 10% 15% to 25%
R&D spending About $2.9bn About $2.7bn
Year-end cash $4.7bn to $5.2bn $8.1bn to $8.3bn

Moderna says the cash increase reflects improved operational execution as well as the convertible-note proceeds.

Line chart of Moderna daily closing share price, July to November 2026, climbing from around $54 in early August to a peak close in early November.
Moderna shares climbed from around $54 in early August to a peak close of $258.38 on Wednesday, then eased to $241.46 yesterday, ahead of the Q3 results.

The raise is not yet a pipeline story. The new flu shot, mFLUSIVA, has only a limited US launch this season, and Bancel said the strength came from the newer COVID shot and wider geography.

The next test is Moderna’s Analyst Day next Thursday, the 12th of November. Pivotal data in propionic acidemia, a rare inherited metabolic disease, is also expected in 2026.

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