HelloFresh Recovery Still Unproven After Weak Q3, Says Analyst

mwb Research reiterated its Sell rating and €1.80 price target on HelloFresh (ETR: HFG) in a new note, saying the meal kit company’s third-quarter results explain its weak sales but do not yet show a recovery.

The target implies 46% downside from Thursday’s closing price of €3.33.

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HelloFresh reported third-quarter revenue of €1.43 billion, down 11.3% at constant currency and broadly in line with its September profit warning.

Orders fell 17.9%, partly offset by a 7.5% rise in average order value, helped by selective price increases, add-ons and premium recipes.

The company cut marketing spending by 24%, including a 32.8% reduction in its ready-to-eat meals business.

Analyst Alexander Zienkowicz said management linked the deeper cuts to weaker-than-planned profitability per order, driven by higher ingredient and cooking costs after rapid menu expansion. HelloFresh chose not to spend on acquiring customers at what it called “suboptimal unit economics.”

“It remains to be seen what happens once contribution economics normalize and marketing spend is stepped up again,” Zienkowicz wrote.

Management expects margins to improve in the fourth quarter and kept its 2026 guidance for a 9% to 11% revenue decline and adjusted EBITDA of €350 million to €370 million. mwb said revenue is tracking around the midpoint, with EBITDA heading toward the lower half.

The analyst said the real test comes in 2027, when higher marketing spending must prove it can win back customers and stabilize orders.

“Q3 provides a plausible explanation for the weak top line, but does not yet demonstrate a recovery,” he said.