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US Consumer Prices Rise 0.4%, Above Forecasts

US consumer prices rose faster than economists expected in October, and the statistics agency could not publish an annual rate. The figures came out today at 13:30 UK time, with the Fed's next decision on the 9th of December.

US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% economists expected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the US government’s statistics agency, published the consumer price index (CPI) today at 13:30 UK time. September’s rise was 0.6%. The BLS did not give an annual rate for October, because it has no October 2025 data to compare against.

What was announced

The 0.4% is the monthly change in the seasonally adjusted index. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% against an estimate of 0.2%, the same as in September.

Within the total, shelter rose 0.3% and food 0.5%. Energy rose 0.7%, following a 5.2% jump in September.

The missing annual figure comes from the government funding lapse. The BLS said:

BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations.

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Without that base month, no 12-month rate can be calculated, so the monthly change is the headline.

Where markets stand today

The S&P 500 stood at 7,500.5 at 3:45pm UK time, down 0.65% from yesterday’s close of 7,549.94. That is a comparison with the previous close only, so the fall should not be put down to the CPI figures.

GSPC.INDX

GBP/USD was 1.3335 at 4pm, down 0.79% from yesterday’s 1.34415. The same caveat applies.

How it compares with expectations

MeasureOctoberConsensusPrevious
CPI m/m0.4%0.3%0.6%
Core CPI m/m0.3%0.2%0.3%

The headline reading came in 0.1 percentage point above consensus, and core was also 0.1 above. The headline rate was slower than September’s 0.6%, while core was unchanged from the month before.

Chart of US monthly CPI from August to October 2026, with September the highest reading
US monthly CPI: October’s 0.4% rise came in below September’s 0.6% (BLS)

What comes next

The Federal Reserve, the US central bank, holds its next rate decision on the 9th of December. Its target range is 3.75% to 4.00%. That gives UK traders with US equity or dollar exposure a dated event to watch.

Asktraders News Team
Asktraders News Team
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The AskTraders Analyst Team features experts in technical and fundamental analysis, as well as traders specializing in stocks, forex, and cryptocurrency.

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