UK GDP grew 0.2% in September, ahead of the consensus estimate of 0.0%, according to the Office for National Statistics. The ONS, the UK’s official statistics body, published the figure today, at 07:00 UK time. The beat is 0.2 percentage points, but it comes alongside a downward revision: August is now estimated at 0.0% growth, down from the earlier +0.1%.
What the ONS reported
Monthly GDP measures the volume of output across services, production (manufacturing, mining, energy and water) and construction. July growth stands at +0.4%, unrevised, so the sequence runs +0.4%, 0.0% and +0.2%. The ONS also cut its three-month reading to August from +0.7% to +0.6%.
All three broad sectors grew in September. Services, the largest, rose 0.2%. Production rose 0.3%, with manufacturing up 0.7%. Construction rose 0.8% after a run of monthly falls.
| Sector | September, m/m | Three months to September |
|---|---|---|
| GDP | +0.2% | +0.7% |
| Services | +0.2% | +0.9% |
| Production | +0.3% | +0.1% |
| Construction | +0.8% | -0.7% |
The three-month column is steadier than the monthly one, and it shows construction still down over the period despite September’s jump.
The three-month picture
The ONS led its bulletin with the longer view. Output in the three months to September, July to September, was 0.7% higher than in the three months to June. The ONS described it this way:
This is the ninth consecutive three-month on three-month growth
Office for National Statistics
September GDP was also 2.1% higher than a year earlier, the highest annual rate since August 2022.
Sterling
What drove it, and what comes next
The ONS pointed to widespread strength in industries that may be related to artificial intelligence. Computer programming and consultancy fell 1.9% in September but grew 4.4% over three months. Motor vehicles were also strong: new car sales were at their highest since September 2020, and registrations were the strongest for a September since 2017, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, the car industry body.
The ONS warned that monthly growth rates can be volatile, and its own real-time indicators for October are weaker. They show softer housing activity, higher energy prices and transport disruption from Storm Austen and Storm Boelo. Consumer demand improved on the month but was weaker over the longer term. Whether the September pick-up holds is what the next monthly reading will show.