The GBP/ZAR currency pair reflects the value of the British pound against the South African rand. It is actively traded in the forex market, offering opportunities due to its volatility.
Key influences on this pair include commodity prices, especially gold and platinum exports from South Africa, the economic performance of both the UK and South Africa, and global risk sentiment. The pound sterling is considered a more stable, developed-market currency, while the South African rand is an emerging-market currency often subject to higher volatility.
While the GBP/ZAR is more widely traded than pairs such as the GBP/MYR or GBP/PHP, it experiences significantly less volume compared to major pairs such as the GBP/USD or EUR/USD. However, the price can still be choppy.
GBP/ZAR Performance & Price Chart
The GBPZAR traded in a sideways pattern for most of 2024, although between June and mid-December, it experienced a slow grind to the downside. However, in the latter half of December the GBP has pushed higher, back into the previous range from earlier in the year.
Last year, the GBP/ZAR gained 0.4%.
| Timeframe | Performance |
|---|---|
| 3 Months | +1.80% |
| 6 Months | +2.90% |
| Year-to-Date | +0.38% |
| 1 Year | -0.50% |
Other Currency Pairs
GBP/ZAR Forecast
In an article on Forex.com, senior market analyst Fiona Cincotta told investors that she expects the UK economy to continue to grow in 2025. However, Cincotta added that there are potential economic headwinds, stating: “GDP could be weaker than the 1.5% forecast by the BoE owing to several key factors, including uncertainty surrounding trade and a less expansionary UK budget.”
Nomura analysts said in their recent outlook for the British pound that they expect it “to continue to gain ground gradually against other currencies where their respective central banks are more concerned about the downside risks to growth rather than sticky price pressures.”
For the South African rand, analysts at Ebury Partners see continued strengthening in 2025. The London-based firm said in October that they expect the rand to extend this year’s rally (at the time, it had made gains against the USD and GBP). Against the USD, the firm set a 2025 price target of 16.75 per dollar.
Meanwhile, analysts at Investec highlighted incoming US President Trump’s tariffs as a potential headwind for the ZAR. They noted the warning of a 100% tariff on imports from the BRICs country grouping if the bloc moves away from the US dollar to a BRICs’ currency. “The rand, which traded around R13.00/USD in 2017, and weakened to over R14.00/USD in 2018 as the US led trade wars escalated, has also been afflicted by investor concerns of renewed global trade wars over 2025,” wrote Investec.
Looking ahead, Trading Economics global macro models projections and analysts expectations forecast the GBPZAR to be priced at at 22.7971 in one year.
Our View: Traders should be prepared for volatility when trading GBP/ZAR due to the divergent characteristics of the two currencies. Overall, despite the potential headwinds on both sides of the equation, a move higher for the pair over the medium term seems most probable.
Trading the GBP/ZAR
As with any currency pair, the GBP/ZAR currency pair offers unique opportunities. In this case, the pair has exposure to both developed and emerging market dynamics. Nevertheless, when trading the pair, traders should:
Understand Volatility: Be prepared for large swings in price, which can create both risks and opportunities. Utilising a prudent risk management strategy will also help to prevent large losses resulting from price swings.
Monitor Commodity Prices: As we mentioned above, South Africa’s reliance on commodities means traders should follow gold and platinum markets (its two largest exports).
Factor in Risk Sentiment: The ZAR is highly sensitive to shifts in global risk appetite, making it a key consideration for traders of this pair.
Overall, while GBP/ZAR can be rewarding for traders who understand its drivers, it is not typically suitable for those seeking low-risk or low-volatility trades.
