Chipotle Mexican Grill Earnings on Deck – Stock Back Near Lows After YTD Struggles

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) is set to release its Q3 2025 earnings after market close today, under a cloud of market unease. The CMG stock currently trades at $40.261 down 0.12% today and a concerning 32.86% year-to-date decline. This performance stands in stark contrast to the high-flying burrito chain's historical dominance, leaving investors wondering if the company can reignite its growth trajectory.

The immediate pressure stems from a confluence of factors. CMG's current price sits below both its 50-day ($41.02) and 200-day ($49.02) simple moving averages, signaling potential bearish momentum and raising concerns about short-term and long-term performance.

Adding to the uncertainty, analysts project earnings per share (EPS) of $0.28 for the quarter, a modest 3.7% increase from the same period last year. In an environment where investors demand robust growth, this figure may not be enough to satisfy expectations.

Adding even more pressure, are recent analyst ratings which are mixed. Wells Fargo & Company recently lowered its price target on CMG from $60.00 to $55.00, while maintaining an “overweight” rating. Conversely, Morgan Stanley upgraded CMG to “overweight” with a significantly higher price target of $70.00. Rothschild & Co Redburn also chimed in with an upgrade from “neutral” to “buy,” setting a price objective of $55.00. This divergence in opinion underscores the uncertainty surrounding CMG's future prospects.

Chipotle's Q2 2025 results revealed a mixed bag. While total revenue increased by 3%, same-store sales declined by 4%, a worrying sign that the company's core business may be facing challenges. Operating margins also contracted due to cost inflation and softening consumer demand, further impacting profitability. However, digital sales remained a bright spot, accounting for 37.4% of total revenue, showcasing the company's success in adapting to changing consumer preferences.

Chipotle is attempting to reignite growth through strategic initiatives. Its planned expansion into Asia, via a joint venture with SPC Group to open restaurants in South Korea and Singapore by 2026, signals a long-term commitment to growth beyond its saturated North American market. The reintroduction of the popular Carne Asada menu item, coupled with promotional offers, also aims to drive short-term sales and customer engagement.

Chipotle faces a critical juncture. The upcoming earnings release will be closely scrutinized for signs of a turnaround. While the company's long-term prospects remain promising, its near-term performance is clouded by challenges. A strong earnings report, coupled with positive guidance, could provide the catalyst for a stock recovery. However, another disappointing quarter could further erode investor confidence and send the stock even lower. The market is waiting, with bated breath, to see if Chipotle can deliver.