Mobileye Stock (MBLY) Off Lows Into Earnings, Remains In Bear Territory

Mobileye’s stock (NASDAQ:MBLY) has built a little momentum in recent weeks, adding 6.35% on the month, following a terrible year for bulls in 2025. The Mobileye stock price remains 36% lower on a 12 month basis, having made new lows at $10.04 in mid December.

The company now reports fourth-quarter this morning, before market open, with bulls looking for signs of a turnaround.

Consensus sits at $0.06 in EPS and $431.85 million in revenue on the quarter, both of which would reflect a decline Y/Y. With EPS having been at $0.13 this time last year, the fall is more than 50%, whilst the drop in sales is expected to be 11.87% Y/Y.

The setup reflects a year spent convincing investors that the worst of the automotive inventory correction has passed. Management raised FY2025 revenue guidance twice during the year, from an initial midpoint of $1.75B in January 2025 to $1.865B by October, as EyeQ volume recovery materialized faster than feared. Yet each quarterly beat was met with measured stock reactions, as the market prioritized forward visibility over backward-looking execution.

Consensus Estimates

Consensus Q4 revenue of $485M sits roughly 16% above the implied guidance midpoint of $417M, calculated from management’s October FY2025 framework of $1.845B to $1.885B minus the first three quarters’ reported revenue of $1.448B. That $68M gap is the largest estimate-versus-guidance spread of any quarter in 2025, creating a higher bar for a clean beat.

The wide estimate range, from $470M to $496M, reflects uncertainty about whether the sequential Q4 step-down from Q3’s $504M represents conservative shipment management or softer OEM ordering. Four analysts raised estimates in the past 30 days with no downward revisions, suggesting the Street has anchored to a scenario where Mobileye delivers modestly above its own guidance framework.

Management Guidance and Commentary

“We are pleased with our third quarter results and are raising our full-year 2025 revenue outlook to a range of $1.845 billion to $1.885 billion. This increase reflects continued strength in EyeQ volume shipments and improved visibility into customer orders and industry supply-demand dynamics.”

Management’s October 23, 2025 guidance raise marked the second upward revision of the year, following a similar move in July when the FY2025 midpoint expanded from $1.75B to $1.825B. The cumulative $115M increase in the midpoint, from $1.75B in January to $1.865B by October, reflected normalization of Tier-1 customer inventories and higher-than-expected EyeQ unit volumes.

“We continue to see strong demand for our advanced driver-assistance systems, with EyeQ volumes growing year-over-year. However, we are managing the business prudently to ensure our customers enter 2026 with appropriate inventory levels, which results in a more conservative fourth quarter shipment profile.”

That messaging created a tension the market has yet to resolve: whether the Q4 conservatism reflects genuine demand caution or proactive supply chain management. The gap between management’s implied Q4 midpoint of $417M and Street consensus of $485M suggests analysts are betting on the latter interpretation.

Analyst Price Targets & Ratings

Wall Street maintains a bullish stance with 80% of analysts rating shares a Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus target of $18.06 implies 66% upside from current levels, though this reflects the stock’s significant decline from previous highs rather than near-term catalysts. The wide target range suggests analysts are split on whether the current valuation discount is justified or excessive.

Sector & Peer Comparison

Mobileye trades at a substantial valuation premium to traditional auto suppliers despite posting a -17.3% profit margin versus the peer group’s positive mid-single-digit margins. The company’s $8.85B market cap reflects investor willingness to pay for long-dated ADAS and autonomous driving exposure rather than near-term profitability.

Earnings Track Record

Mobileye’s 64.3% beat rate over the past 14 quarters and +8.8% average surprise establish a pattern of conservative guidance and consistent execution. The company beat or met estimates in 10 of the last 11 quarters, with the only miss occurring in Q1 2024 during the depth of the Tier-1 inventory correction.

Post-Earnings Price Movement History

The post-earnings movement history reveals a counterintuitive pattern: beats have generated an average -0.9% next-day move, while misses produced a +5.8% gain. This inversion reflects the market’s focus on guidance rather than reported results. The median move of -0.9% and muted reactions to recent beats suggest the market has learned to look through quarterly execution to forward guidance.

Expected Move & Implied Volatility

The options market is pricing an 8.5% move in either direction, translating to a range of $10.00 to $11.80 from the current $10.88 price. That expected move exceeds the -1.0% average historical next-day reaction, reflecting elevated uncertainty about 2026 guidance and the sustainability of the FY2025 recovery.

Expert Predictions & What to Watch

Key Outlook: Guidance Will Drive the Trade

Key Metrics to Watch

The Q4 result will be determined by whether management can thread the needle between exiting 2025 with clean inventories and avoiding language that signals a demand air-pocket. The company’s track record of conservative guidance and consistent execution supports a scenario where Q4 revenue lands modestly above the implied $417M midpoint, likely in the $450M to $470M range.

The more consequential question is whether management provides explicit 2026 revenue and margin guardrails. The Street is currently modeling $2.00B revenue for FY2026, implying 6.4% growth off the FY2025 midpoint. Any indication that 2026 revenue will grow below 5% or that gross margins will compress further will likely trigger a de-rating.