Booking Holdings Stock Named Top Sector Pick as AI Disruption Fears Ease

Booking Holdings stock (BKNG) is up 3.2% this morning as BKNG was named as Mizuho Securities’ top pick in the Internet sector, replacing Airbnb in that designation, as analysts anticipate a significant relief rally following reports that OpenAI is scaling back its native ChatGPT checkout functionality.

The shift in analyst sentiment reflects growing confidence that the existential threat posed by AI-driven platforms to traditional online travel agencies may be less severe than previously feared.

The catalyst for this upgrade stems from reporting by The Information indicating that OpenAI is pivoting away from on-platform shopping checkout toward app-based purchases instead. Mizuho’s analysts view this development as potentially marking the beginning of the end for major disruption fears affecting Internet marketplace businesses, including not only online travel agents but also food delivery platforms and other e-commerce intermediaries. The firm specifically highlighted that OTAs experienced the steepest declines during the AI disruption panic and therefore stand to benefit most from any reduction in perceived competitive threats.

Markets had grown increasingly concerned about the potential for generative AI platforms to disintermediate traditional booking channels, allowing travelers to complete transactions directly through conversational interfaces without ever visiting OTA websites. This fear contributed to a 5.05% decline in Booking Holdings shares on February 23, 2026, despite the company’s otherwise strong operational performance. The stock movement reflected broader anxiety about whether AI could fundamentally reshape the travel booking landscape and compress margins for established players.

However, Booking Holdings’ underlying financial performance remains robust. The company reported a 7% increase in both room nights and gross bookings during its first quarter of 2025, while revenue climbed 8% year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share surged 22%, demonstrating operational efficiency even as GAAP net income fell 57% due to one-time factors. Management’s confidence was evident in the decision to raise the quarterly dividend to $10.50 per share from $9.60, representing a nearly 10% increase in shareholder distributions.

The company has also undertaken strategic initiatives designed to broaden its investor base and diversify revenue streams. A 25-for-1 stock split aims to make shares more accessible to retail investors, while the launch of a new media solution through its OpenTable platform creates additional advertising and partnership opportunities. These moves suggest management is thinking beyond traditional commission-based revenue models.

Analyst sentiment toward Booking Holdings remains constructive, with 36 brokerages assigning an average rating of Moderate Buy. Of those, 29 recommend purchasing the stock while only seven suggest holding. The consensus price target of $5,867.09 implies meaningful upside from current trading levels, with bulls pointing to the company’s vast trove of customer data and its ability to drive direct bookings as competitive advantages that AI platforms cannot easily replicate.

Mizuho’s designation of Booking Holdings as the best of the pure-play OTAs reflects the company’s market leadership position and its relatively lower exposure to alternative accommodation models compared to competitors. As markets reassess the timeline and magnitude of AI-driven disruption, Booking Holdings appears positioned to benefit from multiple tailwinds, including the normalization of travel demand, strategic investments in technology, and now a potential reprieve from the most aggressive competitive scenarios that had weighed on valuations.