HelloFresh Shares Cut to Hold on Soft 2026 Outlook

HelloFresh (ETR: HFG) shares have been downgraded to Hold after analysts at mwb Research warned that the company faces a “soft 2026 outlook” and a slower growth trajectory than previously expected.

The firm cut its price target to EUR 4.10 from EUR 7.00, citing weaker guidance and continued top-line pressure.

mwb Research said HelloFresh’s FY25 results were “a mixed bag,” with net revenue down 12% year over year due to lower order volumes, particularly in the Meal Kits division.

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However, the analysts highlighted meaningful margin progress, noting that Meal Kits margins “returned to pandemic-era levels” of around 13% thanks to efficiency measures.

Adjusted EBITDA rose 6% to EUR 423 million, helped by EUR 160 million in cost savings implemented by year-end. The firm said another EUR 140 million in annualised savings is expected in FY26.

Fourth-quarter results showed further margin improvement but continued revenue declines. The Ready-to-Eat segment was hit by U.S. manufacturing bottlenecks, though mwb Research noted that these issues “have now been resolved.”

The downgrade was driven by management’s FY26 guidance, which calls for a 3% to 6% revenue decline in constant currency and lower adjusted EBITDA. The outlook incorporates restructuring costs tied to planned exits from Italy and Spain, weather disruptions in Q1 and increased investment in the company’s “Refresh” initiative.

mwb Research said the path to “consistent top-line growth appears longer than previously anticipated,” prompting the reduced price target and the move to Hold.