mwb Research has warned that Airbus (EPA: AIR) faces a high probability of cutting its 2026 delivery guidance when it reports first-quarter results on April 28, after the firm estimated Q1 deliveries of just 129 aircraft, well short of the pace needed to hit its full-year target of 870 aircraft.
Analyst Jens-Peter Rieck said in a preview note that the shortfall is not a demand problem but an execution failure, with engine shortages, particularly from Pratt & Whitney, continuing to cap deliveries.
“As long as engines remain unavailable, Airbus simply cannot convert its backlog into deliveries at the pace implied by guidance,” Rieck wrote.
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The 129 estimated Q1 deliveries represent just 14.8% of the full-year target, compared to 17.2% in Q1 2025 and a 10-year average of 18.6%, representing gaps of 240 and 380 basis points, respectively.
To hit the 870 target, mwb explained that Airbus would need to deliver approximately 741 aircraft over the remaining nine months, a pace it described as “increasingly demanding.”
While Airbus has historically relied on a strong fourth quarter to recover from slow starts, Rieck argued that the current gap is too large to close, particularly with the key engine bottleneck unresolved.
“The current shortfall appears too large in our view, especially with no clear resolution on the key bottleneck,” he wrote. “We therefore see a high probability of a delivery guidance cut with the Q1 results. We therefore lower our 2026 delivery estimate from 860 to 840 aircraft and reduce our sales and margin assumptions.”
mwb Research cut its price target for Airbus to €170 from €173. The firm also flagged that the Middle East escalation adds further supply chain risk. The firm maintained a hold rating on the stock.
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