Foresight Group Holdings (LON: FSG) experienced a 4% share price decline following the release of its trading update for the financial year ended March 31, 2026.
While the update showcased growth in key areas, markets reacted cautiously, potentially focusing on the nuanced challenges within specific segments and the Executive Chairman’s tempered outlook.
Assets Under Management (AUM) rose by 6% to £14.0 billion, and Funds Under Management (FUM) increased by 4% to £10.0 billion. On a constant currency basis, AUM reached £13.6 billion and FUM hit £9.8 billion, demonstrating underlying organic growth. Record annual fundraising of £630 million was achieved in higher margin retail vehicles, a 7% year-on-year increase.
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Despite overall growth, Foresight Capital Management (FCM) faced headwinds, reporting a net reduction of £249 million. This figure includes gross inflows of £141 million and positive NAV performance of £50 million, indicating that outflows outweighed new investments and asset appreciation within FCM. Strong realisations in Australia decreased AUM by £250 million, despite contributing material performance fees.
The company anticipates FY26 core EBITDA pre-Share Based Payments (SBP) to align with market expectations, falling within the £65.2 million – £70.2 million range, compared to £62.2 million in FY25. Foresight has been actively executing a share buyback program, utilizing £9.6 million in FY26, with £40.4 million remaining for FY27 and FY28.
Bernard Fairman, Executive Chairman of Foresight Group Holdings Limited, acknowledged the positive results, stating that FY26 represented “another period of profitable and resilient growth,” despite the geopolitical backdrop. He highlighted the record fundraising in higher margin retail vehicles and strong performance across long duration products.
Key Growth Drivers:
- Retail Fundraising: Surged to a record £630 million, demonstrating strong investor appetite for higher-margin retail products.
- Institutional Private Equity: Continued expansion of regional private equity strategy with £95 million in gross inflows, including a 16th fund launch.
- Energy Infrastructure: Foresight Energy Infrastructure Partners II SCSp (FEIP II) secured €595 million in commitments toward its €1.25 billion target, with initial investments underway.
Fairman also noted that the company remains committed to doubling FY24 core EBITDA pre-SBP, but cautioned that “the slower institutional Real Asset fundraising environment could be prolonged by the volatility and uncertainty caused by current geopolitical and macroeconomic factors.” This outlook suggests potential challenges in achieving ambitious growth targets.
Analyst Summary: Bull and Bear Cases
Bull Case:
- Assets Under Management (AUM) grew by 6% to £14.0 billion, with Funds Under Management (FUM) up 4% to £10.0 billion.
- Record annual fundraising of £630 million in higher-margin retail vehicles, a 7% year-on-year increase.
- FY26 core EBITDA pre-SBP is expected to align with market expectations, showing year-on-year growth.
- Strong fundraising progress in key areas like Energy Infrastructure, with FEIP II securing €595 million towards its target.
- An active share buyback program is in place, signalling management’s confidence in the company’s valuation.
Bear Case:
- Share price declined 4% post-update, reflecting negative market sentiment.
- Foresight Capital Management (FCM) experienced a net reduction of £249 million, indicating significant outflows.
- Realisation of Australian assets reduced AUM by £250 million.
- The Executive Chairman acknowledged a “slower institutional Real Asset fundraising environment,” which could hinder growth.
- Achieving the ambitious target of doubling FY24 core EBITDA may be prolonged due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.
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