Airbus (EPA: AIR) shares slipped 0.5% following a first-quarter earnings miss before climbing more than 5% on Thursday, despite mwb Research describing it as “a massive miss,” with analyst Jens-Peter Rieck arguing the muted reaction likely reflects a guidance cut being partially priced in rather than any comfort with the underlying numbers.
The firm maintained its Hold rating and €170 price target, while flagging that it remains “materially below consensus on EBIT margins and FCF.”
Central to mwb Research’s concern is the composition of the Q1 earnings beat. Net income of €586 million nearly doubled consensus expectations, but Rieck was dismissive of the outperformance, writing that “the entire beat stems from a €375 million revaluation of the Dassault stake, which is non-cash, non-operational and non-recurring.”
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Strip that out, he argued, and commercial aviation generated effectively zero margin on €8.3 billion of revenue, against a consensus estimate of €157 million that had itself already been heavily reduced in prior weeks.
The delivery trajectory is seen as the core challenge. At 114 aircraft, Q1 represented just 13.1% of the full-year 870-unit target, compared with 17.2% in the same period of 2025, which was a year that still ended in a guidance cut.
Hitting the full-year target now requires a monthly delivery pace of 84 aircraft against a Q1 run rate of 38, with Pratt & Whitney engine shortages still unresolved, noted the analyst.
mwb Research acknowledged genuine positives, including a record Q1 order intake of 398 aircraft, a backlog of 9,037 units and a largely timing-driven free cash flow outflow.
But the firm concluded that “until delivery acceleration becomes visible, there is no basis to close that gap” with consensus.
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