International Consolidated Airlines Group (LON: IAG) reports its first-quarter 2026 results on Friday, 8 May, and while the numbers themselves should hold up, all eyes will be on what management says next.
IAG shares are down around 5.6% year-to-date.
Q1 is historically IAG’s quietest quarter, but that hasn’t stopped analysts from pencilling in a strong set of results. Revenue consensus sits at €7.18bn, up roughly 2% year-on-year, while EPS is expected at €0.03, compared to €0.02 in Q1 2025.
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The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing Middle East conflict has sent jet fuel prices surging, and airlines are feeling the squeeze. Fuel typically accounts for around a third of an airline’s costs, and with hedging contracts rolling off at elevated price levels, the pressure on margins is mounting. Air France-KLM has already flagged a $2.4bn increase in its 2026 fuel bill and trimmed its capacity guidance. This is a warning shot for the wider sector.
IAG, however, enters these results in better shape than most, backed by a strong balance sheet carrying net leverage of just 0.8x EBITDA and FY2025 operating profit of €5.02bn.
At February’s full-year results, IAG struck an optimistic long-term tone, stating it remained confident in “executing our strategy and transformation” to deliver “revenue growth and earnings growth at high margins,” “significant free cash flow,” and “rewards for shareholders through sustainable dividends and significant further excess cash returns.”
The group cited a “positive outlook for 2026 supported by compelling market dynamics and secular long-term demand.”
The key question on Friday is whether that confidence holds, or whether recent headwinds force a more cautious update on capacity and margin guidance for the remainder of the year.
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