Airbus Shares Have Limited Upside, Analyst Sees ‘Credibility Squeeze’

Airbus (ETR: AIR) is caught in a “credibility squeeze” and faces limited near-term upside despite a 15% year-to-date share price decline, according to mwb Research, which maintained its Hold rating and EUR 170.00 price target on the aerospace giant in a note on Wednesday.

Analyst Jens-Peter Rieck said Airbus is publicly maintaining its 870-delivery guidance for the year while simultaneously freezing 10% of non-industrial spending, which is a combination the firm described as “difficult to reconcile.”

The firm’s proprietary delivery tracking paints a challenging picture. Airbus delivered roughly 107 jets in the first half of the second quarter, implying a monthly run rate of 71, but by mid-May that average had slipped back to just 42 per month.

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Hitting the 870-unit target would now require 97 deliveries per month for the remainder of the year, which mwb Research noted would be the strongest second half in company history.

“A formal guidance cut to around 840 is, in our view, a matter of when, not if,” the firm said.

mwb Research flagged a Reuters report that Airbus has been enforcing a 10% reduction in non-industrial spending across its Commercial Aircraft division and headquarters, running parallel to the existing LEAD cost program launched in 2024.

The signal, in the firm’s view, is that LEAD alone has proven insufficient.

While the delivery shortfall is seen as a timing issue expected to normalize into 2027, mwb Research said the margin story “remains structurally difficult,” with the path back to meaningful profitability in Commercial Aircraft slow and supply-chain dependent.