Piper Sandler Lifts Price Targets on Shell and BP, Cites Stronger Commodity Outlook

Piper Sandler raised its price targets on both Shell (LON: SHEL, NYSE: SHEL) and BP (LON: BP., NYSE: BP) on Thursday, while maintaining Neutral ratings on both oil majors.

The brokerage increased its Shell target to $100 from $89, and lifted its BP target to $46 from $43. The revisions came as part of a broader update to Piper Sandler’s commodity price assumptions for Q3 2026, Q4 2026, and full-year 2027, covering both its Global Integrateds and Large Cap Refiners coverage groups.

Following the update, Piper Sandler’s estimates now sit roughly 12% above Q3 2026 consensus EBITDA and about 27% above 2027 consensus EBITDA for the Majors group. For Refiners, the firm’s forecasts are approximately 15% above Q3 2026 consensus and 36% above 2027 consensus, suggesting the analyst sees meaningfully more upside baked into refining margins and commodity prices than the Street currently reflects.

Despite the higher targets, Piper Sandler’s decision to keep Neutral ratings on both stocks indicates the firm still views the shares as fairly valued at current levels rather than signaling fresh buying conviction.

In early U.S. trading Thursday, Shell’s New York-listed shares slipped about 0.4% to $92.43, while BP shares eased roughly 0.6% to $43.65. In London, Shell shares were down about 0.3% at 3,431.5p and BP shares fell around 0.5% to 539.7p, as broader softness in energy trading weighed on the sector even as the price target increases were digested by the market.

The revised targets imply upside of roughly 8% for Shell and 5% for BP from current U.S.-listed price levels, reflecting Piper Sandler’s more constructive commodity outlook heading into the back half of 2026 and into 2027.