Robinhood Shares Surge as Wall Street Upgrades Collide With Bitcoin Rally

Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) shares jumped over 16% on Thursday, closing at $124.72 after opening at $113.80, as a wave of bullish analyst calls converged with a broad crypto rally to push the stock to fresh highs.

The catalyst was twofold. First, Wall Street sentiment turned decisively positive this week: Morgan Stanley upgraded Robinhood to “Overweight” from “Equal Weight,” lifting its price target to $150 from $124, while Scotiabank initiated coverage with an “Outperform” rating and a $136 target, and Piper Sandler raised its target to $145.

Analysts pointed to Robinhood’s rapidly expanding prediction-markets business — event-contract revenue hit $156 million in the second quarter, overtaking crypto trading revenue of $100 million, with contract volume up more than tenfold year-over-year to 13.6 billion.

Second, macro tailwinds accelerated the move. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signaled openness to holding interest rates steady this month, easing rate-hike fears and weakening the dollar.

That sparked a rally in Bitcoin, which surged roughly 4.6% toward $80,900, lifting the entire crypto-linked equity complex. Robinhood, alongside peers Coinbase (+10.8%), Circle (+14.9%) and Strategy Inc. (+13.7%), rode the wave despite no company-specific catalyst tied directly to the crypto move.

Robinhood’s diversification narrative — spanning banking, retirement accounts, credit products, and its Rothera prediction-markets exchange — has increasingly convinced analysts the company can grow revenue per customer beyond traditional trading.

The stock’s rally puts shares near technical buy points identified after this week’s upgrades, though some caution that rapid gains raise the bar for future earnings to justify the higher valuation.