The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish September’s non-farm payrolls tomorrow, Friday 2 October, at 13:30 UK time. The report counts the monthly change in US jobs outside farming, and it also carries the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. It follows a strong August, and the consensus forecast is for hiring to cool to 90,000, so the release turns on how the actual figure compares with that number.
The release will follow the normal BLS schedule, at 8:30am ET. For UK traders that means 13:30, in the UK afternoon session, and the comparison with the 90,000 forecast is what readers will check first. For context, the Fed’s target range for its benchmark rate is 3.75% to 4.00%.
Key points
- Release is at 13:30 UK time
- August payrolls rose by 162,000
- September forecast is 90,000 jobs
- Unemployment forecast to hold at 4.1%
What the last reading showed
August payrolls rose by 162,000, against a forecast of 56,000, and unemployment held at 4.1%. The BLS put the gain in context in its own report.
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 162,000 in August, higher than the average monthly gain of 31,000 over the prior 12 months.
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The same report revised earlier months. A revision is a later update to a figure already published. June was raised from a gain of 20,000 to 31,000, and July from a fall of 23,000 to a gain of 21,000, leaving the two months a combined 55,000 higher. July was first reported as a loss of jobs and now shows a gain. Average hourly earnings, the pay per hour for private-sector workers, rose 10 cents to $37.75.
What to expect
The consensus forecast for September is a gain of 90,000 jobs, a slower pace than August’s 162,000 but above the 31,000 monthly average the BLS cited for the prior 12 months. It also sits above the 56,000 that was forecast for August. August showed how far an actual figure can sit from the forecast: 162,000 against 56,000. Unemployment, the share of the labour force without a job, is forecast to stay at 4.1%, the same as August. Average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% on the month and 3.1% on the year, both matching the previous reading.
What to watch
- The headline payrolls change, the monthly change in jobs, against the 90,000 forecast and August’s 162,000.
- Any revision to the 31,000 now shown for June and the 21,000 for July, since the last report moved both.
- Average hourly earnings, forecast at +0.3% on the month and +3.1% on the year, and the unemployment rate against 4.1%.