Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), which designs the GPUs and networking platforms that power AI data centres, reports fiscal third-quarter results on Tuesday, after the US close. It is the first report since founder Jensen Huang resigned as chief executive last week. Chief financial officer Colette Kress is interim chief executive, meaning a temporary one until a permanent hire. Analysts forecast earnings per share of $2.49. The shares closed on Friday at $162.85, down 12.75% on the week, so the print has to show demand is intact. Guidance and Kress’s comments are likely to count for more than a routine EPS beat.
When and what to expect
The results land after the US market close on Tuesday, which is the UK evening, so the first full reaction comes in Wednesday’s session. The $2.49 forecast compares with $2.22 of adjusted EPS, which excludes some items, in the quarter to the end of July, and with $1.30 reported a year earlier. The basis for adjusted EPS changed in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, so older comparisons are not strictly like for like.
Nvidia’s own guidance sets the revenue bar: $108.0bn, plus or minus 2%. Last quarter’s record revenue was $96.2bn, up 18% on the previous quarter and 106% on a year earlier, with Data Center, sales of AI chips and systems to data centres, at $89.0bn. Seeking Alpha puts consensus revenue at $108.81bn. Guidance also pointed to a gross margin, the share of revenue left after direct costs, of 74.0% plus or minus 50 basis points, against 75.0% last quarter, and assumed no China Data Center compute revenue.
Track record
| Quarter | Consensus EPS | Actual EPS | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY26 (19 Nov 2025) | $1.26 | $1.30 | +$0.04 |
| Q4 FY26 (25 Feb 2026) | $1.54 | $1.62 | +$0.08 |
| Q1 FY27 (20 May 2026) | $1.77 | $1.87 | +$0.10 |
| Q2 FY27 (26 Aug 2026) | $2.09 | $2.22 | +$0.13 |
Nvidia has beaten the forecast in each of the last five reports, including $1.05 against $1.01 in the quarter before these four. The beat has widened from $0.04 to $0.13. Nvidia restated that earlier quarter’s adjusted EPS to $1.01 under the new basis, so the older figures sit on a different footing.
Into the print
Nvidia closed on Friday down 2.0% on the day, after a 4.3% fall on Thursday, and is down 12.7% this year. The intraday 52-week low of $148.80 was set on Thursday, against a high of $243.37 in early October. The week’s fall has been linked to Huang’s exit and a run of broker downgrades, though timing alone does not prove the cause. Nvidia’s sales are largely locked in well in advance, so the upheaval looks unlikely to affect this quarter or next. That points to the outlook and tone, not the reported numbers, as the exposed part of the print.
What to watch
- Guidance for the fourth quarter against the $108.0bn guided for this one, and gross margin against the 74.0% guided, with 75.0% delivered last quarter.
- China and export charges. Guidance assumed no China Data Center compute revenue. Baird analyst Tristan Gerra listed H200 write-down charges, possible channel revenue adjustments, and litigation or fines among possible headwinds.
- Capital commitments. Nvidia returned about $26.0bn to shareholders last quarter, with about $99.0bn left on its buyback authorisation. Anthropic’s prospectus reportedly shows up to $10bn of Nvidia investment ahead of its IPO.
- What Kress says on succession and strategy, as the board searches for a permanent chief executive.
What the Street thinks
Analyst ratings show 38 Strong Buy, 10 Buy, 13 Hold and no Sell, though the counts may not reflect this week’s downgrades. The mean target is $278.31, well above Friday’s $162.85 close. Bernstein cut Nvidia to Market-Perform from Outperform with a $200 target, Baird cut to Neutral with a $200 target from $500, and Oppenheimer cut to Perform and removed its target. Stifel kept Buy with a $205 target from $315, and Citi kept Buy with $225.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said:
On the positive, the fundamentals of the business (if not the leadership) are clearly still intact with numbers that remain massive (and probably still headed higher),
Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein
Scenarios
EPS above the $2.49 forecast would extend the run of beats to six. The shares have fallen into the report, so whether a beat helps depends on the fourth-quarter guide.
EPS in line with $2.49 would leave guidance and Kress’s remarks on leadership as the deciding factors for the stock.
EPS below $2.49 would break the run of beats. Gerra’s list of possible charges is the risk analysts have flagged.
Key times
- Results: Tuesday, after the US market close, in the UK evening.
- First full reaction session: Wednesday.
Glossary
Adjusted EPS: earnings per share excluding some items, also called non-GAAP EPS.
Guidance: a company’s own forecast for the next quarter.
Basis points: hundredths of a percentage point, so 50 is half a point.
The line the market has to measure against is Nvidia’s last statement: revenue of $108.0bn, plus or minus 2%, with no China Data Center compute revenue assumed.