Netflix Q3 Results Tonight: Outlook Matters More Than Guided Numbers
Netflix reports third-quarter results after the US close tonight with its shares down about a quarter this year. The guided numbers closely match consensus, so the outlook for the fourth quarter and 2026 is what the market will trade.
Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), the streaming group, publishes third-quarter results at about 9.01pm UK time tonight, after the US market closes. The shares closed on Monday at $69.85, against a 52-week low of $65.08.
A live video interview follows at 9.45pm with co-CEOs Greg Peters and Ted Sarandos, CFO Spence Neumann and Spencer Wang, vice president of finance and investor relations. No earnings call is listed, so UK traders can react only in US after-hours, then at tomorrow’s opens.
NFLX.US
Growth is slowing. Revenue rose 13.4% in the second quarter and Netflix has guided to 11.7% for this one. Revenue growth in the US and Canada slowed to 10% in the second quarter from 18% in the final quarter of 2025.
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October has added pressure. Netflix reportedly announced a cut of 6% of staff, about 1,000 jobs, last Wednesday, and reportedly named Peter Rice chief content officer last Friday, replacing Bela Bajaria. Brokers have trimmed targets, including Barclays to $70 from $80.
Netflix weekly closes, split-adjusted, with the four earnings dates marked.
Netflix’s own forecast sets the bar. Consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.82 equals the company’s guidance, and consensus revenue is about $12.88B.
Metric
Q3 2025 actual
Q2 2026 actual
Q3 2026 company guidance
Q3 2026 consensus
Revenue
$11,510M
$12,560M
$12,860M
about $12.88B
Operating margin
28.2%
33.4%
33.2%
n/a
Diluted EPS
$0.59
$0.80
$0.82
$0.82
With the quarter largely guided, attention turns to the full-year forecast of $51.0B to $51.4B in revenue and a 31.5% operating margin, against 29.5% in 2025. KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson cut his target to $85 from $92 and said:
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Given the size of the company today and potential savings from AI, we suspect there is room for some degree of expense realignment
Justin Patterson, KeyBanc
Advertising is a second test: Netflix expects ad revenue to roughly double to about $3B this year. Live events, including NFL games on Thanksgiving Eve and Christmas Gameday and the Fury v Joshua fight later this year, are just over 5% of content spend but about 1% of view hours.
Options pricing implies a move of about 9.5% either way, by one estimate.
The AskTraders Analyst Team features experts in technical and fundamental analysis, as well as traders specializing in stocks, forex, and cryptocurrency.
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