Taylor Wimpey Jumps 4% on Tuesday as Goldman Upgrades to Neutral

Taylor Wimpey (LON: TW.) closed up 4.12% on Tuesday, the day Goldman Sachs upgraded the housebuilder to neutral from sell. The US investment bank also raised its target price to 82p from 69p.

Taylor Wimpey closed at 79.32p, up from yesterday’s 76.18p. That is still below its 50-day average of 81.18p and 200-day average of 87.57p, and well under the 89.32p closing high set on the 28th of September. The 82p target is 3.4% above the close. All five listed peers also rose, from Persimmon’s 2.16% to Vistry’s 5.74%, so part of the move is sector-wide.

According to Goldman, the headwinds facing southern England, where Taylor Wimpey is heavily exposed, are now largely built into consensus forecasts, meaning the average analyst estimate. The bank also pointed to the company’s cut in its payout to 4% of net assets from 7.5%, which it said was “removing a major overhang.”

Goldman said the shares have moved to about a 15% price-to-book discount to peers. Price-to-book compares market value with net assets. According to Goldman, when it downgraded the stock in May, the shares traded at a price-to-book premium to peers of 2% for 2026 and 6% for 2027.

The wider call is on volumes. Goldman raised its volume growth forecasts for traditional housebuilders to 2% in 2027 and 7.0% in 2028, from 1% and 4%. It credits the government’s first-time buyer scheme, which offers first-time buyers of new-build homes in England a 2.5% deposit and a 20% interest-free equity loan.

For 2028 it sees Persimmon at 9%, Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Redrow at 7% and Bellway at 6%, while Berkeley and Vistry gain little. Goldman rates Barratt Redrow, Persimmon and Vistry buy, Bellway neutral and Berkeley sell.

Goldman cites Taylor Wimpey prices down 2% year on year and incentives above 6%, against 4% to 5% at Persimmon, and still expects the company to see slower pricing and volume growth than peers because of its southern England exposure. The Budget on the 28th of October is due to set the scheme’s price caps, income limits and developer contributions.