AngloGold Ashanti Stock (AU) Riding High Into Earnings – What To Expect

AngloGold Ashanti reports fourth quarter 2025 results on February 20 before market open. The quarter provides the first test of whether the company’s record free cash flow generation in Q3 2025 ($1.14B EBITDA) can be sustained through year-end seasonality and whether management’s free-cash-flow-linked dividend framework remains robust at current gold prices.

Consensus sits at $1.90 EPS and $3.00B revenue, both representing substantial year-over-year gains driven by higher realized gold prices and production increases from Sukari and managed operations.

The AngloGold Ashanti stock price (NYSE:AU) has surged 236% over the past 52 weeks, trading at $107.63 against a $112.57 consensus target, leaving limited room for multiple expansion absent a material beat or transformative 2026 guidance.

The company’s 23.8x P/E sits below the broader US Metals and Mining industry at 25.4x and well below peers at 32x, but the recent run has compressed the valuation discount that previously defined the bull case. The result will determine whether AngloGold can sustain its growth-at-a-reasonable-price positioning or whether cost inflation and aging assets begin to erode the margin story that powered 2025 outperformance.

What matters most is not the Q4 print but the 2026 operational outlook. Management reaffirmed 2025 production guidance of 2.9 to 3.225 million ounces at $1,580 to $1,705 per ounce all-in sustaining costs through Q3. The market will scrutinize whether those ranges hold for 2026 or whether cost creep, grade pressures, or capital intensity force a reset.

The company’s dividend policy, which ties payouts directly to free cash flow with board discretion for interim true-ups, amplifies the importance of cash conversion metrics. A quarter that meets consensus but signals weaker 2026 cash generation would likely trigger profit-taking after the stock’s extraordinary run.

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Consensus Estimates

The $1.90 EPS estimate represents a 113.5% increase versus Q4 2024’s $0.89 result, which missed the $0.99 consensus and triggered a 0.9% next-day decline. The revenue estimate of $3.00B implies 74.4% year-over-year growth, driven by higher realized gold prices and volume gains from the Sukari acquisition and operational improvements at Obuasi and Geita. The estimate set reflects the operational step-change visible across 2025, where quarterly EPS climbed from $0.88 in Q1 to $1.32 in Q3 as production and pricing tailwinds compounded.

AngloGold does not provide formal EPS or revenue guidance, framing expectations operationally through production, all-in sustaining costs, and capital expenditure ranges. The company reaffirmed its 2025 production target of 2.9 to 3.225 million ounces at $1,580 to $1,705 per ounce AISC through Q3, with $1.70B in planned capital spending. The absence of explicit earnings guidance places greater weight on the operational metrics that drive margin and cash flow outcomes. Consensus EPS of $1.90 sits well above the Q4 2024 result but below the Q3 2025 peak of $1.32, reflecting expectations for typical Q4 seasonality offset by sustained pricing strength.

Estimate momentum has been modestly positive, with one upward revision in the past 30 days and no downward adjustments. This stability contrasts with the volatile revision patterns seen earlier in 2025, when Q1 results paired a revenue beat with an EPS miss, underscoring how sensitive per-share outcomes are to costs, taxes, and joint venture contributions even when top-line gold income runs hot. The current estimate set assumes management can hold costs within the guided AISC range while converting higher realized prices into earnings, a combination that proved achievable in Q2 and Q3 but faced headwinds in Q1.

Management Guidance and Commentary

“AngloGold Ashanti delivers strong start in Q1 2025: YoY Gold production +22%, AISC +1%, Free cash flow rises 607% to $403m, Headline earnings up 671% to $447m. 2025 guidance reaffirmed.”

Management’s Q1 2025 release established the operational framework that has anchored expectations through the year. The company reaffirmed full-year production guidance of 2.9 to 3.225 million ounces at $1,580 to $1,705 per ounce AISC, with capital expenditure planned at $1.70B. The reaffirmation signaled confidence in the production ramp from Sukari and performance improvements at key managed mines, while the narrow AISC range implied management believed cost pressures could be contained despite industry-wide inflation. The 22% year-over-year production increase in Q1 validated the volume thesis, while the modest 1% AISC increase demonstrated cost discipline that became a defining feature of 2025 results.

“AngloGold Ashanti Q2 and Six Months Ended 30 June 2025: Record free cash flow and large interim dividend linked to paying half of free cash flow (with board discretion to true-up intra-year).”

The Q2 release shifted the narrative from operational execution to capital returns. Management declared a large interim dividend tied explicitly to free cash flow generation, formalizing the payout framework that had been outlined in the Q4 2024 results. The decision to pay half of free cash flow with board discretion for intra-year true-ups created a direct link between quarterly cash conversion and shareholder returns, making free cash flow as important as reported earnings in determining market reaction. The policy also raised the bar for Q4, as investors now expect not just strong earnings but also cash generation sufficient to support continued dividend growth.

“AngloGold Ashanti delivers nine-fold increase in 2024 free cash flow to $942m versus prior year. Adjusted EBITDA +93% year-on-year and H2 dividend growth of 263% to 69 US cents per share. Total cash costs +4% for FY 2024 below group inflation.”

The Q4 2024 results release highlighted the cash flow inflection that set the stage for 2025 outperformance. The nine-fold increase in free cash flow to $942M and 93% adjusted EBITDA growth demonstrated the leverage inherent in the business model when gold prices rise and production expands. The 4% increase in total cash costs, running below group inflation, established the cost discipline narrative that management has reinforced in subsequent quarters. The 263% H2 dividend increase to 69 cents per share introduced the free-cash-flow-linked payout policy that now defines investor expectations.

The gap between consensus and guidance is difficult to quantify because management does not provide EPS or revenue targets. The $1.90 EPS estimate and $3.00B revenue figure represent analyst extrapolations from the operational guidance ranges, gold price assumptions, and historical conversion rates. The key tension is whether Q4 results can match the cash conversion efficiency demonstrated in Q3, when the company generated record free cash flow and paid a large interim dividend. If production lands at the high end of the guided range and AISC stays near the low end, consensus EPS becomes achievable. If costs drift higher or production disappoints, the estimate looks stretched.

Analyst Price Targets & Ratings

Wall Street maintains a bullish stance, with 80% of analysts rating shares a Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus target of $112.57 implies modest 4.6% upside from current levels, reflecting the stock’s strong run and compressed valuation discount. The limited coverage of five analysts reflects AngloGold’s smaller profile relative to major peers, though those covering the stock remain constructive on the operational improvements and cash flow generation.

Sector & Peer Comparison

AngloGold Ashanti trades at 23.8x trailing earnings, a 26% discount to Newmont’s 34.2x and a 16% discount to Agnico Eagle’s 28.4x, but a 28% premium to Barrick’s 18.6x and a 57% premium to Kinross’s 15.2x. The forward P/E of 12.1x sits at the low end of the peer group, reflecting analyst expectations for substantial earnings growth in 2026 as production gains and margin expansion compound. The 26.3% profit margin leads the peer group, exceeding Barrick’s 22.1% and nearly double Newmont’s 15.8%, validating management’s cost discipline narrative and the operational leverage inherent in the portfolio.

The valuation positioning reflects AngloGold’s hybrid profile. The company combines the margin strength of a high-quality producer with the growth trajectory of a developer, supported by exploration success at Nevertire and the recent Augusta Gold acquisition. The 12.1x forward P/E implies the market expects 2026 earnings to nearly double from current levels, a forecast that requires sustained gold prices, continued production growth, and margin stability. The discount to Newmont and Agnico Eagle suggests investors remain skeptical that AngloGold can sustain its recent performance, while the premium to Barrick and Kinross acknowledges the company’s superior profitability and growth optionality.

Earnings Track Record

AngloGold Ashanti has beaten consensus in only 5 of the past 20 quarters, a 25% beat rate that ranks among the weakest in the gold mining sector. The average surprise of negative 11.4% reflects a persistent pattern of results falling short of analyst expectations, particularly pronounced in 2024 when Q2 and Q3 delivered misses of 34.8% and 30.9%, respectively. The track record improved in 2025, with Q3 delivering a 6.5% beat, but Q1 and Q2 both missed consensus despite strong operational performance, highlighting the difficulty of translating production gains and higher gold prices into predictable per-share earnings.

The pattern reveals a structural challenge in modeling AngloGold’s earnings. The company’s results are highly sensitive to below-the-line items including taxes, royalties, and joint venture contributions, creating volatility in reported EPS even when operational metrics meet or exceed expectations. Q1 2025 exemplified this dynamic, pairing a revenue beat with an EPS miss as costs and taxes consumed more of the gross profit than analysts anticipated. The improvement in Q3, when both revenue and EPS exceeded estimates, suggests management has gained better control over cost and tax variables, but the historical record argues for caution in assuming the Q3 execution can be replicated consistently.

Post-Earnings Price Movement History

AngloGold Ashanti’s post-earnings price reactions have been remarkably consistent, averaging a 2.1% gain regardless of whether the company beats or misses consensus. The average move on beats of 3.4% exceeds the move on misses of 1.9% by only 150 basis points, a narrow spread that suggests the market focuses more on forward guidance and operational trends than the headline earnings surprise. The pattern is most visible in Q2 2025, when a 3.1% EPS miss triggered a 4.4% next-day gain as investors focused on record free cash flow and the large interim dividend rather than the consensus shortfall.

Expected Move & Implied Volatility

The options market is pricing a 6.5% move in either direction following the Q4 earnings release, implying a trading range of $100.64 to $114.62. This expected move exceeds the historical average post-earnings reaction of 2.1% by more than three times, reflecting elevated uncertainty about whether the company can sustain its recent performance and deliver 2026 guidance that justifies the stock’s 242% gain over the past year. The 52% implied volatility sits at the 68th percentile of its historical range, indicating options traders see this earnings event as carrying above-average risk relative to prior quarters.

Expert Predictions & What to Watch

Key Outlook: Cautiously Bullish with Execution Risk

The bull case rests on three pillars. First, gold prices have remained elevated, with spot prices averaging above $2,600 per ounce in recent weeks, well above the levels that drove Q3’s record free cash flow. Second, the operational improvements that powered 2025 results appear sustainable, with Sukari contributing meaningfully to production and Obuasi and Geita delivering better-than-expected performance. Third, the company’s free-cash-flow-linked dividend policy creates a tangible return mechanism that differentiates AngloGold from peers and supports valuation multiples.

Key Metrics to Watch

The AISC metric carries the most weight because it determines whether AngloGold can sustain margin expansion as gold prices stabilize. The company held AISC to $1,643 per ounce in Q3 2025, near the midpoint of the $1,580 to $1,705 per ounce guidance range. A Q4 result at or below $1,650 per ounce would demonstrate cost discipline and support the bull case for continued profitability growth. Results above $1,680 per ounce would signal that inflation, grade pressures, or operational challenges are eroding the margin advantage that differentiates AngloGold from peers.

Free cash flow has become as important as reported earnings because of the direct link to dividends under management’s payout policy. The company generated record free cash flow in Q3 2025 and paid a large interim dividend, setting expectations for continued cash returns. A Q4 result above $400M would validate the sustainability of the cash conversion model and support another large dividend, reinforcing the capital returns narrative. Results below $350M would force difficult choices about dividend policy and raise questions about whether Q3’s record performance was an outlier.

The 2026 operational guidance will determine the stock’s trajectory more than the Q4 result. Management has reaffirmed 2025 production of 2.9 to 3.225 million ounces at $1,580 to $1,705 per ounce AISC through Q3, establishing a baseline for investor expectations. A 2026 guide that preserves or expands the production range while holding AISC flat or lower would validate the growth thesis and support the current valuation. A guide that signals flat production or rising costs would challenge the narrative that AngloGold is a growth-oriented producer rather than a mature miner dependent on gold price momentum.