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Apple Faces High Bar Into Monday Results

Apple reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on Monday after the US close, with shares just under a 52-week high and the company's own guidance setting a demanding bar for revenue, margins and supply.

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) will report fiscal fourth-quarter results on Monday 2 November, after the US close, with its earnings call at 22:00 UK time. The company makes the iPhone, Mac, iPad, Watch and AirPods, and sells Services; its fiscal year ends in September.

The shares closed at $348.91 on Thursday, up 1.48% from $343.83 and just under the 52-week high of $351.73 set on 23 October. The 52-week low is $243.42, from 20 January. Zacks puts the year-to-date gain at 26.5%.

AAPL.US

Apple’s guidance, as summarised by Zacks, sets the bar. It pointed to revenue growth of 9% to 11%, with currency moves trimming the growth rate by about 2.5 points sequentially, and said supply constraints would intensify across iPhone, Mac and iPad.

Analysts expect earnings per share of $1.98. The Zacks consensus for revenue is $112.95bn, which implies growth of 10.2%. The same recap has guidance for gross margin of 47% to 48% and operating expenses of $19.1bn to $19.4bn.

MetricConsensusYear-agoApple guidance
EPS$1.98$1.85n/a
Revenue$112.95bnn/aUp 9% to 11%
Gross marginn/an/a47% to 48%
Operating expensesn/an/a$19.1bn to $19.4bn

Tariff refunds complicate quarter-on-quarter comparisons. The June quarter’s 50.1% gross margin included about 2 points of refunds, and its $2.02 EPS included $0.11 of them. The guided 47% to 48% includes about 1 point.

Line chart of Apple's share price over three months, climbing to near its 52-week high into the results
Apple shares have climbed to near their 52-week high going into the results (daily closes, three months to 29 October, USD). Source: EODHD

Beating forecasts has not guaranteed a rise. Apple topped EPS consensus in each of the last four quarters, yet the shares fell 7.35% the session after July’s report and rose 3.24% after April’s.

The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max went on sale on 18 September. Memory costs offer a read-across: Intel guided below estimates on Thursday, citing weak PC demand tied to high memory costs, and its shares fell 23% in extended trading.

Results land after the US close, so the first reaction will come in after-hours trading, with the regular-session response on Tuesday.

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Asktraders News Team
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