Hargreaves Lansdown told investors in a note on Wednesday that there could be upside in Aston Martin Lagonda (LON: AML) shares if management delivers its promised improvements this year, while cautioning that heavy cash burn and mounting debt costs keep the outlook risky.
Analyst Aarin Chiekrie noted that Aston Martin’s revenues “raced much higher over the first half” as production of its premium-priced special models ramped up, but said rising operating and debt costs are eating into the benefits.
He described a long road back to profitability, with underlying operating losses only set to narrow this year.
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Production issues with the Valhalla appear resolved and should help lift margins, according to Hargreaves Lansdown, though the firm remains cautious given Aston Martin’s recent reputation for “overpromising and underdelivering.”
Tariffs are expected to stay a headwind through the remainder of 2026, a significant concern given that nearly 40% of revenue comes from the Americas.
The broker also flagged the group’s lack of scale, with volumes expected to remain flat at around 5,448 cars, meaning small dips can hit profits hard.
It said asset sales and headcount cuts have freed up cash but are “not a viable long-term plan,” while rising interest costs continue to drain the business.
Chiekrie stated that if management delivers, “there could be upside on offer,” but added that he remains sceptical amid high cash burn and weaker demand tied to the Middle East conflict, seeing scope for full-year losses to come in slightly wider than expected.
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