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Caterpillar Stock Slumps Despite Profit Beat

Caterpillar beat profit forecasts and held its guidance, but with the stock priced for more, the shares are sharply lower and on course for a very large one-day drop if the loss holds into the close.

Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), the construction and mining equipment maker, reported third-quarter adjusted earnings above forecasts, yet its shares were down 9.41% in US trading today. Adjusted earnings per share were $7.20, against a consensus estimate of $6.95 and $4.95 a year earlier.

The shares stood at $646.26 at 19:32 London time, with the US session still open, from yesterday’s close of $713.38. They have traded between $631.01 and $664.47 so far today.

CAT.US

Sales and revenues rose 17.3% to $20.68bn and the order backlog nearly doubled, up 95.7% to a record $78.1bn. Power and Energy sales reached $8.78bn, with power generation up 30% on data-centre turbines and large engines.

The company kept its 2026 outlook of mid-to-high-teens revenue growth but did not raise it, and guided to only “moderate” growth in the fourth quarter. It also said its adjusted margin would sit near the bottom of its target range, excluding tariff recoveries.

MarketWatch’s Tomi Kilgore said construction-industries sales came up short. Tariffs remain a cost: Caterpillar expects about $2.2bn of them in 2026, and its profit included $128m of tariff recoveries.

Line chart of Caterpillar's share price sliding sharply on 29 October 2026 after third-quarter earnings, well below its late-June 2026 record close.
Caterpillar (CAT.US) shares were sharply lower on 29 October 2026 after Q3 results, well off the 30 June 2026 record close. Level as of 19:32 London time, still trading.

The scale is unusual. If the loss holds into the close, it would be larger than the 8.6% fall on the 3rd of April 2025 but smaller than the 14.3% fall on the 9th of March 2020. The shares are about 39% below their record close of $1,064.90 on the 30th of June.

Bloomberg analyst Chris Ciolino said valuation was the issue, with the stock above 20 times earnings going into the report, against 16 to 17 times mid-cycle. In his view, the quarter itself was fine:

it actually was a decent quarter… you had top and bottom line beats… reiterated the guide, but obviously in this market that’s not good enough.

Chris Ciolino, Bloomberg

Caterpillar had been the best performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average for about half of 2026. The index was down 0.36% at 52,288.16 at 19:33 London time. Ciolino said large engine and turbine orders now run to 2029-2030, but flagged overcapacity worries for 2028-29.

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