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Deutsche Bank Downgrades Sainsbury’s to Hold

Deutsche Bank has cut Sainsbury's to hold from buy and trimmed its price target, saying it has less faith in the grocer's volume outperformance days after the company lifted the bottom of its profit guidance.

Deutsche Bank has downgraded Sainsbury’s (LON: SBRY), the UK supermarket group, to hold from buy and cut its price target to 365p from 390p. Sharecast reported the call came today, with the bank seeing less upside into peak trading, the Christmas shopping period.

Shares were down 0.7% at 350.90p by 10:40 GMT and closed at 347.00p, down 1.76% on yesterday’s close. Deutsche Bank’s new target sits about 5.2% above that closing level.

SBRY.LSE

The bank’s earlier buy case rested on volume outperformance, margin drivers and a narrowing valuation gap to rival Tesco. After Sainsbury’s first-half results on Thursday, that first leg looks weaker, according to the note as reported by Sharecast.

Following H1 results we have less conviction on volume outperformance, while weaker sales leave greater reliance on margin and cost levers to deliver earnings.

Deutsche Bank

The forecasts show it. Deutsche Bank now expects second-half like-for-like sales growth, which strips out new space, of 1.8%, down from 3.6%. Its forecast for full-year operating profit (EBIT) is unchanged at £1,052m.

The bank still describes the business as in good shape, citing competitive pricing, healthy customer satisfaction and availability of about 98%. A softer volume outlook, limited near-term margin progression and a fuller valuation make risk and reward less attractive into peak trading, it said.

Sainsbury’s own numbers are the counterweight. Continuing underlying operating profit for the first half rose 3.6% to £525m from £507m, and the company lifted the bottom of its full-year guidance range to £1,025m–£1,065m from £965m–£1,065m.

The company also said it expects the market to be very competitive in the second half. Christmas trading is the next test.

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