mwb Research reiterated its buy recommendation on TUI (ETR: TUI1) with a price target of 16.00 euros, implying upside of 112.6% from Friday’s closing price of 7.53 euros, as the travel group prepares to resume standard cruise operations by mid-May following geopolitical disruption in the Middle East.
Analyst Dr. Oliver Wojahn told investors that TUI’s “financial resilience and capacity to pivot to Western European destinations support a recovery,” keeping estimates unchanged despite a reshuffled winter 2026/27 cruise program and a temporary softening in German travel demand.
The firm acknowledged near-term headwinds, including a temporary decline in bookings driven by geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary pressures, weakness in demand for Turkey and Egypt, and the cancellation of all Arabian Gulf itineraries for the coming winter season.
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Two vessels, TUI’s Mein Schiff 5 and the new Mein Schiff Flow, have been redeployed to European and Canary Islands routes, which mwb Research flagged as “more saturated” markets that could weigh on average booking prices.
However, the firm said those pressures are temporary. “Once the geopolitical situation returns to normal, there are good reasons to believe that bookings will quickly rebound,” Wojahn wrote, noting the likely shift in demand toward Western European destinations.
The broader investment case is said to rest on TUI’s ability to redirect capacity efficiently and its restored financial footing.
With the fleet’s emergency rerouting now concluded following the successful Strait of Hormuz transit, mwb Research feels the company “appears well-placed to respond to changing geographical demand patterns and mitigate the adverse effects of the current crisis.”
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