The S&P 500 enters the week after a 1.8% fall on Friday, with a Bank of England decision, US midterm elections and the US jobs report all due before the week is out.
The index closed Friday at 7,580.07, down from 7,720.39 on Thursday. The Bank’s Bank Rate decision comes at 12:00 on Thursday, with the previous rate at 3.75% and no consensus.
For UK traders, sterling and gilts, UK government bonds, are the markets most directly exposed to that noon announcement. US-exposed holdings have Tuesday’s midterms and then Friday’s payrolls to watch.
Monday
- 15:00 US: ISM Manufacturing PMI, October, a survey of factory activity. Consensus 54.7, previous 54.5.
- 15:00 US: ISM Manufacturing prices, October. Consensus 77.5, previous 77.9.
- 15:00 US: ISM Manufacturing new orders, October. Consensus 55.4, previous 55.3.
- 15:00 US: Construction spending, September. Consensus 0.6, previous 0.9.
- 16:15 US: Fed speech by Goolsbee. No consensus.
- After the US close: Apple results. EPS estimate 1.98.
Tuesday
- Before the US open: Pfizer results. EPS estimate 0.72.
- All day US: midterm elections. No consensus.
- 15:00 US: JOLTS job openings, September. Consensus 7.1m, previous 7.079m.
- 15:00 US: factory orders. Consensus 1.1, previous 0.1.
- After the US close: AMD results. EPS estimate 1.68.
Wednesday
- 10:00 Eurozone: flash inflation, October, year on year. Consensus 3.9%, previous 3.8%.
- 10:00 Eurozone: core inflation, October. Consensus 2.5%, previous 2.5%.
- 13:15 US: ADP employment, October. Consensus 65, previous 90.
- 13:30 US: Treasury refunding announcement. No consensus.
- 15:00 US: ISM Services PMI, October. Consensus 54.8, previous 54.9.
- Before the US open: Uber results. EPS estimate 0.94.
Thursday
- 09:30 UK: Construction PMI, October. Consensus 46.5, previous 46.1.
- 12:00 UK: Bank of England Bank Rate decision. Previous 3.75%, no consensus.
- 12:30 UK: Bailey speaks. No consensus.
- 13:30 US: initial jobless claims. Consensus 197k, previous 194k.
- 13:30 US: Q3 productivity. Consensus 3.1, previous 1.4.
- 18:00 Eurozone: Lagarde speaks. No consensus.
Friday
- 07:00 UK: House Price Index, October. Month on month consensus 0.1%, previous 0%; year on year consensus -0.2%, previous 0%.
- 12:15 UK: Bank of England speech by Pill. No consensus.
- 13:30 US: non-farm payrolls, October. Consensus 65, previous 29.
- 13:30 US: private payrolls, October. Consensus 60, previous 46.
- 13:30 US: unemployment rate. Consensus 4.2%, previous 4.2%.
- 13:30 US: average hourly earnings, October. Month on month consensus 0.3%, previous 0.1%; year on year consensus 3.0%, previous 3.0%.
- 15:00 US: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, November. Consensus 47.3, previous 48.
- 15:00 US: Michigan one-year inflation expectations. Consensus 4.7%, previous 4.7%.
The two that matter most
The Bank of England decision is the one UK-specific fixed point. Bank Rate has stood at 3.75% since at least the 10th of June, and there is no consensus for Thursday. Bailey speaks at 12:30, half an hour after the decision. Sterling and gilts are the markets most directly exposed.
The US midterm elections on Tuesday are the main event risk for US holdings, and they fall in the same week as results from Apple, Pfizer, AMD and Uber. Friday’s October payrolls then give a read on the labour market, with consensus at 65 against a previous 29 and unemployment expected to stay at 4.2%.
| Day | Time (UK) | Event | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 15:00 | US ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 |
| Tuesday | All day | US midterm elections | No data | No consensus |
| Thursday | 12:00 | Bank of England Bank Rate | 3.75% | No consensus |
| Friday | 13:30 | US non-farm payrolls | 29 | 65 |
Earnings
Apple reports after the US close on Monday with an EPS estimate of 1.98. Pfizer follows before the US open on Tuesday at 0.72, and AMD after the close that day at 1.68. Uber reports before the US open on Wednesday, with an EPS estimate of 0.94.
Where rates stand going in
The Bank of England’s Bank Rate is 3.75%. The Federal Reserve’s target range for the federal funds rate is 3.75% to 4.00% as of the 30th of October. The European Central Bank’s deposit rate is 2.5%, and its main refinancing rate is 2.65%. No Fed or ECB rate decision falls this week.