UK consumer price inflation for September is due on Wednesday at 07:00 UK time, the biggest scheduled event in a week without a central bank rate decision.
The consensus estimate is 3.4% year on year, up from 3.1% previously. The Bank of England’s rate stands at 3.75%, the Federal Reserve’s target range at 3.75%-4.00% and the European Central Bank’s deposit rate at 2.50%. None of the three meets this week.
The week follows a Friday when US stocks fell. The S&P 500 lost 1.09% to 7,659.44 and the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.50% to 29,187.55. Germany’s DAX rose 0.95% to 25,622.61, and GBP/USD gained 0.42% to close at 1.33274.
Key events by day
All times are UK time. Tuesday’s UK labour data also include employment change, with a consensus of 60 against 67 previously, and HMRC payrolls, expected at -15 against -26.
| Day | UK time | Event | Previous | Consensus estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 03:00 | China GDP, third quarter, year on year | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| Tuesday | 07:00 | UK unemployment rate, August | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| Tuesday | 07:00 | UK average earnings including bonus | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| Tuesday | 07:00 | UK average earnings excluding bonus | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| Tuesday | 07:00 | UK claimant count change | 27.8 | 19.4 |
| Tuesday | 10:00 | Germany ZEW economic sentiment | 34.7 | 31.6 |
| Wednesday | 07:00 | UK CPI, September, year on year | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| Wednesday | 07:00 | UK CPI, month on month | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Wednesday | 07:00 | UK core CPI, year on year | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Wednesday | 14:00 | Bailey speaks | No data | No consensus |
| Wednesday | 17:00 | Lagarde speaks | No data | No consensus |
| Thursday | 13:30 | US initial jobless claims | 199 | 200 |
| Friday | 07:00 | UK retail sales, month on month | 0.5 | -0.2 |
| Friday | 08:30 | Germany flash composite PMI | 53.8 | 53 |
| Friday | 09:30 | UK flash composite PMI | 52 | 51.7 |
| Friday | 14:45 | US flash composite PMI | 58.4 | 57.6 |
UK retail sales on Friday are expected at -0.2% on the month against 0.5% previously, and 2.0% on the year against 2.4%. Euro-area flash PMIs also land on Friday at 09:00, with a consensus of 52.3 against 53.1 previously.
The two that matter most
UK CPI is the biggest entry. Headline inflation is expected at 3.4% year on year, up from 3.1%, with month-on-month inflation at 0.3% against 0.5%. Core CPI is expected at 2.7% year on year against 2.6%, and 0.1% on the month against 0.3%. Bailey speaks at 14:00 the same day, with no consensus attached.
The labour data on Tuesday at 07:00 come first. Unemployment for August is expected at 5.0% against 4.9%, while average earnings including bonus are expected to ease to 3.8% from 3.9%, and excluding bonus to 3.4% from 3.5%.
Earnings
Consensus figures are for earnings per share. On Tuesday GE reports before the US open, expected at 2.02, and Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) reports after the close, expected at 0.82. On Wednesday AT&T reports before the open, expected at 0.61, and Tesla and IBM report after the close, expected at 0.21 and 2.87. Procter & Gamble reports before the open on Thursday, expected at 1.89.
The UK clocks change on the 25th of October, so this week’s times are all in British Summer Time.