Antofagasta Shares Rally Following Goldman Sachs Upgrade to ‘Buy’

Antofagasta shares (LON:ANTO) are rallying this morning, spurred by an upgrade from Goldman Sachs that signals renewed confidence in the copper miner's growth prospects. The upward revision is rooted in the company's strategic expansion plans, particularly the accelerated development of its Centinela Phase 2 project.

The markets reacted positively, with Antofagasta's stock climbing 3.93% in today's trading session. This latest surge brings the company's monthly gains to an impressive 18.69%, reflecting increased market optimism surrounding the company's future performance. The stock's movement highlights the sensitivity of its valuation to analyst sentiment and project advancements.

Goldman Sachs analyst Matt Greene upgraded Antofagasta to a ‘Buy' rating, setting a price target of 4,000 GBp. The firm's optimistic outlook is primarily fueled by the anticipated impact of the Centinela Phase 2 project. This expansion is projected to deliver over 30% growth to the company's output by 2030, significantly enhancing its long-term earnings potential.

The Centinela expansion includes the development of the Encuentro Sulphides pit, where initial stripping activities have already commenced. This new pit will supply higher-grade sulphide ore to the Centinela Second Concentrator, a crucial component of Antofagasta's $4.4 billion expansion project. The expansion aims to boost copper output substantially, optimizing value from Centinela's extensive 2.6 billion tonnes of ore reserves.

J.P. Morgan has also weighed in favorably on Antofagasta, adding the company to its Analyst Focus List and placing it on a Positive Catalyst Watch ahead of the second quarter 2025 results.

J.P. Morgan cites peer-leading volume growth and a projected inflection in free cash flow as critical drivers for their positive outlook. The brokerage also notes that since its double upgrade to ‘Overweight' in late February, Antofagasta's prospects have improved, with copper prices rebounding and gold prices increasing by 8%.

Operationally, Antofagasta has demonstrated a steady increase in production. For the first nine months of 2025, copper production rose by 3% year-on-year, totaling 476,600 tonnes. This growth was primarily driven by higher output at Centinela Concentrates, offsetting lower contributions from Centinela Cathodes and Los Pelambres. Gold production also saw a significant increase, rising by 22% to 145,000 ounces during the same period.

A Cautious Counterpoint

Despite the prevailing optimism, some analysts have adopted a more cautious stance.

Deutsche Bank recently downgraded Antofagasta to ‘Sell' from ‘Hold', citing the stock's substantial appreciation throughout 2025, during which its value doubled. The bank suggests that the shares have decoupled from the copper price in the latter half of the year, driven by operational challenges at other major producers and the scarcity value attached to high-quality, lower-risk copper companies. Deutsche Bank believes the current share price already reflects the company's growth pipeline and discounts a long-term copper price of approximately $12,500 per tonne.

The market's current sentiment toward Antofagasta appears to be heavily influenced by the potential upside from its expansion projects and the backing of prominent financial institutions. However, the divergence in analyst opinions underscores the importance of considering valuation concerns alongside growth prospects.

This suggests that while the company's strategic initiatives are promising, the current share price may already reflect much of the anticipated future success, leaving limited room for further upside. Time will tell which side of the bull-bear divide is closer to being right.