Carnival Corp Lack of 2023 Guidance Not Surprising, Says Stifel

Carnival (LON: CCL) (NYSE: CCL) shares rose on Wednesday after the company reported its fiscal fourth quarter results, topping earnings expectations but missing revenue estimates.

The cruise line company posted a loss per share of $-0.85 on revenue of $3.84B. Analysts expected a loss per share of $-0.88 on revenue of $3.91B.

Looking ahead, Carnival said it sees occupancy for the first quarter of 2023 being 90% or slightly higher. Meanwhile, it expects adjusted EBITDA in Q1 to be between $250 and $350 million, while it has also forecasted an adjusted net loss of $750 to $850 million for Q1 2023.

Although there was a lack of full-year guidance, Stifel analyst Steven Wieczynski said in a note reacting to the results that although 2023 guidance wasn't provided, he doesn't believe it should come as a shock to most investors.

The analyst told investors that it probably makes sense for Carnival to delay giving full-year guidance due to the uncertainty around the company's European-sourced business and the fact it hasn't encountered Wave Season yet.

In addition, the analyst, who has a Buy rating and $18 per share price target on the stock, pointed out that first quarter EBITDA guidance was slightly below what he is targeting, although it seems like most of the “miss” is tied to higher advertising costs which isn't a surprise to him. Nevertheless, the company's forward booking commentary continues to be encouraging, said Wieczynski.

Carnival's London-listed shares closed Friday's shortened session up 1.5%