SoFi Stock Pulls Back Into Earnings, After Year of Outperformance – The Latest

SoFi's stock price (NASDAQ:SOFI) sits at $23.93 in the pre-market ahead of earnings, more than 25% below mid November highs, and 11% lower since the start of the year. After what has been a slow start to 2026, what does the company have up it's sleeve for earnings, due up before the opening bell?

Wall Street is expecting $0.12 adjusted EPS on $895 million revenue, both above the implied run rate from full-year guidance, creating a setup where meeting the quarter still leaves questions about 2026 trajectory.

Despite the pullback, SoFi stock remains an outperformer over longer time frames, with the 1 year gain of 48.18%, a significant upside on the 14.79% delivered by the S&P500 over the same period.

The Street's focus has shifted from proof of profitability to sustainability of the fee-based mix. Q3 delivered $949.6 million adjusted net revenue and $0.11 adjusted EPS, beating expectations of $886.6 million and $0.08, with fee-based revenue hitting $409 million, up 50% year-over-year.

Management raised full-year targets for the third consecutive quarter, reinforcing a pattern where upside comes less from quarterly beats and more from credible forward guidance.

The December equity issuance complicates the narrative. SoFi raised $1.5 billion for “general corporate purposes” without articulating specific deployment plans, diluting shareholders and raising questions about capital allocation discipline.

Combined with new product launches including the SoFi Smart Card and a shift to $10 monthly fees for SoFi Plus benefits, management faces pressure to demonstrate that reinvestment supports margin expansion rather than flattening the EPS trajectory.

Consensus Estimates

Consensus EPS of $0.12 sits 9% above the implied Q4 run rate from management's full-year $0.37 target, while the $895 million revenue estimate runs 13% ahead of the implied $791 million quarterly figure backing into $3.54 billion annual guidance. That gap matters because SoFi did not provide explicit Q4-only guidance in Q3 reporting, leaving the Street to extrapolate from full-year targets.

Management Guidance & Commentary

“We are raising our full-year 2025 guidance for adjusted net revenue to approximately $3.54 billion, representing 36% year-over-year growth, and adjusted EBITDA to approximately $1.035 billion, representing a 29% adjusted EBITDA margin.”

Management's Q3 guidance raise marked the third consecutive quarter of upward revisions, lifting full-year adjusted net revenue from an initial $3.235 billion midpoint in Q1 to $3.54 billion by Q3. That trajectory reflects stronger-than-expected fee-based revenue contribution, with the loan platform business, origination and referral fees, and interchange revenue all exceeding internal models.

The December $1.5 billion equity raise adds complexity. Management has not articulated specific deployment plans beyond “general corporate purposes,” leaving investors to weigh whether the capital strengthens regulatory and funding flexibility or signals acquisition ambitions that could dilute near-term returns.

Analyst Price Targets & Ratings

Wall Street maintains a positive outlook with 75% of analysts rating shares a Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus target of $27.11 implies 11.4% upside from current levels, though the recent equity raise has prompted some analysts to lower targets due to dilution concerns.

Sector & Peer Comparison

SoFi trades at 48.0x forward earnings, a significant premium to both traditional fintech peers and digital lending competitors. The 19.5% profit margin stands well above peers, reflecting SoFi's success in scaling higher-margin fee-based revenue streams. The valuation premium carries execution risk, pricing in continued fee-revenue growth without room for missteps.

Inside SoFi's modern headquarters, where the company has built its fee-based revenue transformation.

Earnings Track Record

SoFi has beaten adjusted EPS expectations in 15 of the last 20 quarters, establishing a 75% beat rate. The pattern shows consistent upside through 2025, with beats reflecting the Street underestimating the pace of fee-revenue scaling and operating leverage. However, the stock trades on guidance slope rather than quarterly results—beats without strong forward guidance have triggered negative reactions.

Post-Earnings Price Movement History

SoFi's post-earnings price action shows a counterintuitive pattern: beats average a -3.4% next-day move, reflecting the stock's sensitivity to forward guidance rather than backward-looking results. The Q4'24 reaction is illustrative—a 25% beat followed by a -9.6% drop as profitability guidance disappointed. The stock requires both a beat and credible forward outlook to generate positive reactions.

Expected Move & Implied Volatility

The options market is pricing an 8.5% move in either direction, significantly above SoFi's 5.73% average post-earnings move. That 48% premium to historical volatility reflects elevated uncertainty around both the quarterly result and management's 2026 guidance, particularly regarding the December capital raise deployment.

Expert Predictions & What to Watch

Key Outlook: Guidance Will Drive the Trade

Key Metrics to Watch

SoFi's corporate reception area, where the company continues building its digital financial services platform.

The fee-based revenue trajectory is the single most important metric for validating the transformation thesis. Q3 delivered $409 million, up 50% year-over-year. If Q4 sustains that pace at $440 million or higher, the market will gain confidence that the shift toward capital-light revenue is structural. Conversely, if fee-based revenue comes in below $420 million, the deceleration would signal competitive pressure.

Adjusted EBITDA margins provide the clearest read on operating leverage. Management guided to 29% margins for full-year 2025. If margins expand to 30%+ and management guides to further expansion in 2026, the stock will likely sustain its premium valuation. If margins flatten due to reinvestment, the forward EPS curve flattens and the stock re-rates lower.

Capital deployment commentary is critical for addressing the December equity raise. Management needs to articulate specific use cases beyond “general corporate purposes” to justify the dilution. If the capital supports technology platform expansion or strategic initiatives that accelerate fee-revenue growth, the market will view the raise as accretive.

For investors looking to understand the broader context of trading vs investing approaches to SoFi, the company's transformation from a lending-focused model to a diversified financial services platform makes it particularly interesting for both short-term momentum traders and long-term investors. The stock's high volatility and guidance-driven price action create opportunities for active traders, while the underlying business model evolution appeals to those taking a leveraged view on fintech disruption.