Under Armour Stock (UAA) Outperforming Into Earnings – What To Expect

 Under Armour's stock (NYSE: UAA) is trading at $6.15 in the pre-market, 2% lower on the session, having already pulled back 4.69% during Thursday's regular trade. Despite the daily dip, the stock has shown signs of outperformance relative markets this year ahead of this morning's earnings, with gains of 18.71% YTD standing in stark contrast to the 0.88% pullback in the S&P 500 over the same period.

Analysts are anticipating an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.01, a sharp decline on the 8c profit per share delivered this time last year. Revenue is expected to have slowed by 6.37% Y/Y to $1.31B. The recent outperformance that has seen UAA bounce more than 50% off November's low, continues to leave holders nursing declines of 17.37% on a 1 year basis. Longer term underperformance, mixed with recent outperformance means expectations are raised, so why?

In November 2025, Under Armour revised its fiscal 2026 adjusted operating income outlook upwards, projecting a range of $95 million to $110 million, an increase from the prior estimate of $90 million to $105 million. This positive adjustment stemmed from an expanded restructuring plan, involving an additional $95 million in restructuring actions, bringing the total to $255 million. These actions encompass costs tied to the separation of the Curry Brand, contract terminations, asset impairments, and employee severance.

The company's stock has experienced significant volatility. Over the past 52 weeks, UAA has traded between $4.13 and $8.72. As of late September 2025, the stock touched a 52-week low of $4.76, marking a 45.19% decline over the preceding year. However, recent performance shows a potential shift in momentum.

Currently, Under Armour's stock price sits above both its 50-day ($5.14) and 200-day ($5.59) Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). This technical indicator suggests a potential upward trend, which could be influencing investor sentiment ahead of the earnings announcement.

One major event impacting Under Armour was the termination of its 13-year partnership with Stephen Curry in November 2025. This led to the Curry Brand separating from Under Armour, allowing the latter to concentrate on its core brand. The final collaborative product, the “Curry 13” shoe, is slated for release in February 2026.

In late 2025, Under Armour faced a data breach investigation. The breach reportedly exposed the email addresses and personal information of approximately 72 million customers. The compromised data included names, genders, birthdates, and ZIP codes. Under Armour stated that there was no evidence suggesting that passwords or financial information were affected.

Analyst ratings have also played a role in shaping market perceptions. In May 2025, a JPMorgan analyst reduced the price target for Under Armour shares to $6.00 from $7.00, maintaining an Underweight rating. This downgrade followed the company's fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, which showed an adjusted earnings per share loss of $0.08 and an 11.4% revenue decline.

Conversely, Under Armour's shares surged by 7.53% on December 30, 2025, following Fairfax Financial Holdings' acquisition of a significant stake, increasing its ownership to 16.1% of Under Armour's Class A shares. This move signaled confidence in the company's undervaluation and restructuring strategy.

Adding to the changes, Under Armour announced a CFO transition. Reza Taleghani is set to succeed David Bergman in February 2026. Taleghani brings over 25 years of global financial and operational experience. Bergman will remain with the company through the first quarter of fiscal 2027 to facilitate a smooth transition.

Given the upcoming earnings report, investors should anticipate heightened volatility in UAA stock. The expected negative EPS may weigh on investor sentiment. However, the stock's position above key moving averages, coupled with recent restructuring efforts and a revised operating income outlook, suggests a potential for positive surprises. The market's reaction to the earnings release will likely set the tone for UAA's near-term performance.