BASF Shares Break €50 Barrier Amid Analyst Skepticism – Can the Rally Hold?

BASF SE shares (ETR:BAS) climbed 3.62% in morning trading to push above the €50 threshold for the first time in nearly twelve months, marking a psychological milestone for the German chemicals giant. The move extends the stock’s year-to-date gain to 12.73%, yet the sustainability of this rally remains under intense scrutiny as a chorus of analyst downgrades casts doubt over the company’s near-term prospects.

The shares are now trading at levels not seen since early 2025, with the five-year chart suggesting a potential breakout above key resistance. However, markets appear caught between technical momentum and fundamental caution, as several major financial institutions have recently slashed their price targets and downgraded their ratings on the Ludwigshafen-based manufacturer.

Analyst Downgrades Signal Caution

JPMorgan delivered one of the most notable downgrades, moving BASF from Neutral to Underweight while cutting its price target from €52.00 to €45.00. The bank revised its EBIT projections for 2025 and 2026 downward by 6% and 15% respectively, signaling concerns over the company’s earnings trajectory in an increasingly challenging operating environment.

Deutsche Bank followed suit, lowering its rating from Buy to Hold with a €45.00 price target, down from €51.00. The bank anticipates difficult industry conditions persisting into 2026, forecasting just 3% EBITDA growth for the fiscal year, which sits 4% below consensus estimates.

Perhaps most striking was Berenberg’s move to a Sell rating, accompanied by a price target reduction to €37.00 from €44.00. The firm cited persistent macroeconomic headwinds, weak German industrial production, and overcapacity issues in China as significant obstacles to BASF’s recovery. The analyst house also suggested that consensus forecasts remain overly optimistic given the structural challenges facing the chemicals sector.

Strategic Moves and Shareholder Returns

BASF has not been idle in response to these pressures. In October 2025, the company announced the divestment of its automotive coatings and surface treatment business, a strategic move designed to streamline its portfolio and redirect capital toward core operations. Yet markets reacted with muted enthusiasm, suggesting skepticism about whether asset sales alone can reverse the company’s fortunes.

More positively, BASF unveiled plans for a share buyback program of up to €1.5 billion starting November 2025, forming part of a broader €4 billion buyback strategy extending through 2028. The initiative signals management confidence in the company’s financial resilience and represents a tangible commitment to returning capital to shareholders during a period of operational uncertainty.

Adding to the company’s recent setbacks, BASF was removed from the EURO STOXX 50 index in September 2025 due to underperformance in market capitalization and trading volume. While largely symbolic, the exclusion carries implications for institutional investment flows and broader market perception of the company’s standing among European blue chips.

For now, BASF’s technical breakout offers a glimmer of hope for long-suffering shareholders, but the fundamental backdrop remains clouded. Markets will be watching closely to see whether management’s strategic initiatives can translate into improved earnings momentum, or whether the weight of analyst skepticism ultimately pulls the stock back below this hard-won threshold.