Upstart Stock Bouncing Into Earnings After Difficult Year – What To Expect

Upstart Holdings stock price (UPST) jumped to $41.64 this morning, marking a 6.92% surge from the previous day's close. The stock is exhibiting upward momentum ahead of its upcoming earnings report, prompting investors to assess potential outcomes.

Despite the recent gains, Upstart remains below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), which stand at $45.51 and $55.02, respectively. This technical positioning suggests that while there's short-term bullish activity, longer-term bearish pressures persist, unsurprising with the stock price 44% lower on a 1 year basis.

Analysts anticipate Upstart to report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.46for the current quarter, a strong improvement on the $0.26 this time last year. Revenue is expected to soar 77.33% to $288.56 million on the quarter.

Recent strategic partnerships may provide some tailwinds for Upstart. In January 2026, Upstart expanded its collaboration with Rize Credit Union, a move aimed at broadening access to personal loans across California. This partnership leverages Upstart's AI-driven lending platform to reach a wider range of borrowers, including prime and underserved households. Rize initially joined the Upstart Referral Network in May 2024, and the expanded relationship seeks to scale Rize's digital lending capabilities and loan portfolio.

Prior to that, in December 2025, Upstart partnered with Technology Credit Union (Tech CU) to offer personal and auto refinance loans. This partnership also utilizes Upstart's AI lending platform to provide faster and more seamless lending options. Tech CU had previously begun offering personal loans through the Upstart Referral Network in September 2025, with plans to extend the offering to auto refinance loans in early 2026.

However, not all recent news has been positive. Upstart's third-quarter 2025 financial results, released in November 2025, presented a mixed picture. While the company beat EPS estimates at $0.52 compared to the forecast of $0.42, revenue fell slightly short at $277.1 million versus expectations of $280.6 million. Moreover, management's fourth-quarter revenue guidance of around $288 million was below the Wall Street consensus estimate of $306.6 million, leading to investor concerns and a subsequent stock price decline.

Institutional investors continue to maintain a presence in Upstart. In the third quarter of 2025, Simplicity Wealth LLC acquired 27,967 shares of Upstart, valued at approximately $1.42 million. Overall, institutional investors own approximately 63% of Upstart's stock, indicating continued interest from larger investment firms.

Analyst sentiment on Upstart remains divided, with a consensus “Hold” rating and an average price target of $60.36. This suggests that while analysts see some upside potential, there are also significant risks associated with the stock. The discrepancy between the current price and the average price target underscores the uncertainty surrounding Upstart's future performance.