BAE Systems Earnings Preview: Can Full-Year Results Extend the Share Price Rally?

BAE Systems (LON: BA.) will report full-year 2025 earnings on Wednesday, with analysts expecting another year of strong growth underpinned by elevated global defence spending and solid order momentum.

Market expectations point to performance in line with the group’s November guidance, which called for “good growth” in sales and underlying EBIT, alongside robust cash generation.

Company-compiled consensus forecasts FY25 sales of £30.6 billion, with estimates ranging from £30.5 billion to £30.8 billion.

Underlying EBIT is projected at £3.29 billion, while underlying earnings per share are expected to reach 74.2 pence. Free cash flow is forecast at £1.53 billion, comfortably above the group’s guidance of more than £1.1 billion.

Analysts see this momentum extending into 2026, with consensus pointing to further increases in sales, profits and dividends.

In its last trading update, the company reaffirmed that it was on track to deliver mid- to high-single-digit growth across all key metrics, supported by sustained demand, a sizeable order backlog and its multinational programme footprint.

Currency movements also remain a factor, given the group’s exposure to U.S. dollar-denominated revenue.

Recent analyst commentary has turned more measured after a sharp share-price rally. Jefferies shifted the stock to Hold in early February, arguing the valuation now reflects much of the near-term optimism despite ongoing geopolitical tensions that continue to support defence markets.

BAE Systems shares have risen more than 16 percent this year and over 61 percent in the past 12 months. TradingView data shows a divided analyst view: out of 19 ratings, nine are Buy, seven Hold and three Sell.