TRIG Shares Dip as NAV and Revenue Forecasts Trimmed

Shares of The Renewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG) experienced a 2% decline following the release of its Q4 2025 update, which revealed a decrease in net asset value (NAV) and reduced revenue forecasts.

The market is reacting to the challenges faced by the renewable energy investment company, despite its commitment to maintaining its dividend target.

The estimated unaudited NAV stood at 104.0 pence per share as of December 31, 2025, a 5.7p per share decrease during the quarter. This decline was attributed to several factors, including a -1.8p reduction in revenue forecasts, a -1.8p impact from low power prices and grid outages in Sweden, a -1.2p increase in discount rates for UK offshore wind projects, and a combined -0.9p impact from UK government regulatory and taxation changes.

Despite the NAV decline, TRIG met its 2025 dividend target of 7.55 pence per share. Gross cash cover for the year was a robust 2.1x before the repayment of £192 million in project-level debt. Net dividend cover, however, stood at 1.0x, highlighting the resilience of the business model amidst a challenging environment.

The board has affirmed its commitment to a progressive dividend policy, aiming to at least maintain the dividend level and increase it when prudent. The 2026 dividend target remains at 7.55 pence per share. The company will prioritize restoring net dividend cover to the 1.1x – 1.2x range and fostering future NAV growth.

TRIG has made strides in its capital allocation strategy. Drawings under the revolving credit facility have been reduced to approximately £200 million following a £200 million private placement debt issuance. Disposal activities are underway to further decrease short-term borrowings. Of the £150 million share buyback program, £80 million has been completed, and the pace of buybacks will increase after the 2025 Annual Report & Accounts are published.

Q4 generation was 5% below budget, with good generation from offshore wind offset by underperformance in Sweden and the UK. Lower gas prices and reduced demand for green certificates led to a reduction in near-term power price projections, impacting revenue forecasts. Discount rates for UK offshore wind were increased by 0.5% to reflect the competitive investment landscape.

TRIG's management team continues to focus on value enhancement activities, having added £32 million to the portfolio valuation in 2025. Key projects include the Ryton and Spennymoor battery storage projects, which are progressing, albeit with some delays in the Ryton project's energization. The repowering of the Cuxac onshore wind farm in France is also advancing.